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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 371.65-1.1%Nov 17 4:00 PM EST
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To: TobagoJack who wrote (7106)6/10/2006 2:21:37 PM
From: Taikun  Read Replies (2) of 217847
 
TJ,

There are reports of trouble in Chinese banks. If China's CB has to bail them out, and in the process has to unload US T-Bills to fund said op, I think your gold bet will be the only game in town.

Not bonds, nor commodities, and certainly not equities.

I am slowly unwinding Puts and bear funds to buy gold as it drops the next few weeks.

If we get a Fed pause, the market will rally for several weeks, and I will open new Index Puts.

USD is in a Bull, so I'll keep my USD Bull fund to 92 on the USD Index (it may ultimately hit 95)

Here is also a good place to add to oil sands but I think we will have more than one chance to add this year and all buys should be made with one caveat. There is a current tendency to see xyz commdity stock as 'way too cheap' at these prices, assuming current commodity prices and demand picture. The coming correction in Chindia will fix LME inventories in a jiffy. (Hang on, we already had the Indian correction!)

Anyway, such rear-view mirror approaches will become more irrelevant as the depth and breadth of the global slowdown is appreciated, and when sentiment sours (we think businesses hold too much cash now, we aint seen nuttin yet I say) all that cash sloshing around (augmented with Bernanke notes printed to fight deflation) will find its way to...gold!

D
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