Hello Ray, exceedingly few folks are predicting the demise of the American economy, and with it, the USD.
Hello TJ,
I agree with you on many things but not this one. At least, not in the USA as of the last 6 months. A google search on 'falling dollar" produced 20,300,000 hits, it is covered very well here on Business news and newspapers and magazines. However, it is true that the US is running up huge debt both government and consumer, compared to a lot of other countries and all being equal, it's currency should get weaker. But our wise friend Elmat has pointed out, all is not equal.
Americans have run up great debt because they can. Credit and debt are as American as apple pie. An American who makes, say $100,000.00 a year, might owe a combined debt of $500,000.00 or more. Where else in the world is this possible, sans businesses?
I being older than you, draw from personal experience more than text books and history, not that I am suggesting history isn't valid,but personal experience impinges more. When I arrived in the USA around '75 there was similar talk of the dollar going to hell, R.E. crashing, stocks etc., in fact TEOTWAWKI. I quickly invested in commodities, gold , silver etc., and to cut to the chase, went broke. At which point, I shifted from focusing on the economy, to ways to make a buck. Within 6 months of getting my green card I owned several California income properties and a house in one of the nicest areas of town. The first property was bought with a $1,000 cash, charged on my newly acquired credit card and $1,000 from a partner.
My point is, where else is that possible? What other country could you get that kind of credit with no work history. America runs on credit.
Now will it run forever like that? NO. Are you correct in saying that in the long run it has to be paid back, absolutely! However, I think it was Kenyes that said "in the long run we will all be dead".
Again, I defer to Elmat "demise of the American economy. No! return to the natural size!" in that post he refers to Britain
contracting and that is true, however look at the time span. Will the USA loose dominance militarily, politically and economically? Without question. Will it happen in our lifetime? In Coconut's? Probably to some degree, but TEOTWAWKI still hasn't happened to the Brits for all their cock ups by government.
Having said all that maybe it is different this time which is why a little diversification and gold as insurance is a good idea. :}
BTW I will route for TT except against England, they are tough :} |
