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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Juniors, Mid-tiers and Producers
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To: E. Charters who wrote (13111)6/10/2006 10:18:08 PM
From: Gib Bogle  Read Replies (2) of 78417
 
Ah! Now you see the value of the decision tree method. The probabilities on the branches have to add up to the probability on the node they branch from. There is a prob of 1/3 on the G3 branch, then (this is an assumption) the games compere has a 50-50 chance of opening either of door 2 or door 3 - he shouldn't care which. This means that the 1/3 prob is split equally between the O2 and O3 branches. You'll note that the probs at the ends of all the branches add up to 1.

Your figure isn't quite right. G1, G2 and G3 all branch from the common root node. I'll try to draw it:


o-------------------------------
     |               |          |
     |               |          |
     |               |          |
    Gess1-1/3       Gess2-1/3  Gess3-1/3
  |     |            |          |
  |     |            |          |
  |     |           0pin3-1/3  0pin2-1/3
  |    Opin3-1/6
 Opin2-1/6
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