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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Juniors, Mid-tiers and Producers
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To: emrs1 who wrote (13131)6/11/2006 2:58:42 AM
From: E. Charters  Read Replies (1) of 78419
 
based on new information it now seems the Caddy has a 50-50 chance of being behind 1 and 3 (and zero of being behind door 2)?


You mean the Cadillac has a 50-50 chance of being behind doors one or three. Well not exactly. It has a 100% chance of being behind one of the doors remaining, but the chance that it is behind the door that the contestant picked is always the same as from the first time he picked. 33%. The chance does not change from the contestant's point of view because someone else knows the position of a goat. He picks from 3, he gets 33%. He has first choice. From the remaining doors, the one not selected and the one with the goat shown, the field of the probability of the Cadillac being in that duple is still 67%. (If one selected is 33% the remaining two is 67%.) Always the same.

If we see the goat door, the the remaining door has the only possible position for the 67% chance of finding the Cadillac. So we switch to a 67% probability from a 33%. It is like switching to a duple from a single. The duple always has the better chance. Why do you not stick with the duple of the one you picked originally and the goat shown? It is not the same. "Adding a goat" to one selected first at random makes that duple a 33% chance no matter what.
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