"and I have not been on the opposite side"
That comment was w/r to LT. I have been and remain bearish ST to IT. After shorting the top for a very nice gain, I have been on the sidelines.
I may go big long pm's this week, but only for a very ST trade. As professed elsewhere I continue to believe the commodity arena is very very dangerous, with the danger being on the downside. The issue is the dollar, and it bears watching. There is a possibility that the dollar could yet put in quite rebound. Before it does however it probably has to go lower, which may drive pm's through quite a rebound. Remains to be seen.
I remain convinced pm's have started a correction of major degree. How long it will run I do not know. If the correction is deep there is potential for lot of trading gains here, as the correction would only be in the early stages.
It seems to me the most logical path is the one that will maximize the kaos. In short I tend to presently feel the correction may be very deep, but shorter in time as opposed to longer.
The best way to trade is to take it as it comes, be patient, avoid the tunnel vision syndrome. Easier said than done in this volatile sector.
Energy may be even more dangerous than pm's. If certain global events happen crude oil could suffer a huge correction. It would appear the price is much higher than what pure supply/demand dictates. Again remains to be seen.
The fall elections may play a part in all of this. Don't count out Bush and The Republicans. They are very good at ST control, in particular when it comes to winning elections. The gen market shitteree may hold until October, then collapse.
With that it mind the events going on in Irag/Iran are very very interesting. Do we see Bush and The Republicans becoming less intransient, w/r to Iran? I think so.
Over the next few years I tend to think making money in the markets will become increasingly difficult.
Just my present opinions. |
