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Non-Tech : The Woodshed
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To: nspolar who wrote (40127)6/11/2006 11:55:29 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical  Read Replies (1) of 60920
 
>> I remain convinced pm's have started a correction of major degree. How long it will run I do not know. If the correction is deep there is potential for lot of trading gains here, as the correction would only be in the early stages. <<

The rate at which to PMs have fallen along w/gold suggest that you're on the mark. I have not become as bearish as you yet on PMs IT wise, but I'm certainly open to the possibility. PMs and the broad market are still trading mostly in synch. The broad market really hasn't corrected much for all practical purposes. Sure it's oversold on a daily basis, but the S&P is down less than 10% from it's highs and the markets have not closed down more than 2% in how long?

I'm less concerned w/a strong Dollar rally hurting gold. Initially gold could get hurt, but most gold investors are looking at the end game for the Dollar. Any rally would be ST, IT in nature at most. Gold is/has been rallying on a global basis. We've taken out more than $100 from the top. From a risk/reward standpoint things look decent here. The biggest risk imho continues to come from the broad market itself and the unwinding of the risk loves trades as Russ W. puts it. To continue on this theme of market weakness I agree w/this:

Message 22532818

I'm all cash currently w/the exception of some NG shares in various accts.

I think Iran did far more harm to gold than any Dollar rally of late. Every geo-political event we've had since the beginning of this PM rally has been bad. Gold surges, PMs shares lag, gold corrects and PM shares correct. Brings in too many weak/ST hands and gives ammo to the shorts on the downside (not that I think there's any Iran premium left at this pt).
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