GOP fashioning Bush-style turnout operation for Cal election
By MICHAEL R. BLOOD
AP Political Writer
LOS ANGELES (AP) -- State Republicans are attempting to organize the largest mobilization of GOP election volunteers in state history to help deliver a re-election victory for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, a strategy modeled on get-out-the-vote drives that President Bush used to capture Ohio and other swing states in 2004.
Party insiders say as many as 90,000 people could be enlisted in the closing days of the race to knock on doors, plant yard signs or make telephone calls to connect with potential voters, an unprecedented figure in a state thick with Democrats.
A record turnout by the state's 5.4 million Republicans could cut into a Democratic registration edge that otherwise puts Schwarzenegger and other statewide GOP candidates at a numerical disadvantage at the polls.
"The California Republican Party will build the largest Republican voter turnout organization ever built in any state in the history of the nation this year," said Ron Nehring, vice chair of the state GOP.
The point on election day: "The world is run by who shows up," Nehring said.
The turnout operation - which will be bankrolled with as much as $25 million - is being assembled at a state party office in Burbank by William Christiansen, a veteran state GOP operative whose get-out-the-vote program for the 2004 Bush campaign in Arizona helped deliver a 10-point victory. Former Bush strategists also are in charge of Schwarzenegger's re-election campaign, which is playing a central role in the turnout drive.
With Christiansen, "We have someone who knows the system. ... He knows how to make it work," said Contra Costa County Republican Party Chairman Thomas Del Beccaro.
At a time when many people are disenchanted with politics - Tuesday's primary appears to be one of the lowest turnouts on record in California - identifying potential voters and nudging them to go to the polls or fill out a mail-in ballot will be critical for both major parties.
There are 6.7 million registered Democrats in California compared to 5.4 million Republicans, but Republicans generally turn out 5 percent more voters, helping close the gap. Luring the increasingly large number of independent voters - nearly 20 percent of the state electorate, or 2.9 million - will be another key factor in November.
Analysts say typical methods for motivating potential voters - phone calls, bulk mailings and even television ads - might not be as effective as once believed. Following the Bush model, the thinking is they must be contacted and cajoled repeatedly, in person, neighbor to neighbor, to make sure a vote is cast.
That's the heart of the GOP plan, party leaders say.
The turnout brain trust also includes Terry Nelson, the political director for Bush's re-election campaign in 2004; state Republican Chairman Duf Sundheim; GOP strategist Joe Shumate; pollster Sarah Simmons; and Schwarzenegger political director Stephanie Tyler-Jackson. More than 60 people have been hired and deployed around the state.
But there are possible problems. Schwarzenegger will try to energize his base at a time when Bush's popularity is slumping and the GOP is divided by a host of social and economic issues, from gay marriage to immigration to the state's continuing budget deficits.
And he must do so without alienating moderate independents and Democrats, Hispanics and other voter groups he needs to win.
"He wants to drive a very high Republican turnout and still have a centrist position," said Shawn Steel, a former head of the state GOP.
Some activists are grumbling privately that only the governor will benefit from the turnout program, a contention party leaders dispute.
In 2004, Bush's re-election victory over Democrat John Kerry was credited in part to his campaign's success at driving up turnout in states where the contest was tight. Strategists armed with scientific research honed in on swing voters, areas where they thought Bush underperformed four years earlier and booming suburban regions where new residents might be unregistered.
A key element for Bush was mobilizing religious conservatives, but that tack wouldn't be an easy fit with the socially moderate Schwarzenegger. However, conservatives could feel a vote for the governor is preferable to the election of liberal Democrat Phil Angelides, and there are several potential ballot initiatives this fall that could drive up GOP turnout, including one that would require minors to notify parents before seeking abortions.
Democrats, who rely heavily on thousands of union foot soldiers each election to reach voters, scoffed at the ambitious plan.
Nehring and other Republicans say a strong turnout operation helped the party hold the 50th Congressional District seat in San Diego on Tuesday, in which volunteers knocked on 150,000 doors and made 120,000 phone calls in what amounted to a dry run for the November plan. But Democrats say the four-point margin for winner Brian Bilbray was a sign of weakness in a Republican-rich district.
"They are in a fantasy world," said Sam Rodriguez, political director of the California Democratic Party.
Republicans will try "to suppress voter turnout by going negative and using wedge issues of distortion and division," he said.
Political operatives of all stripes boast about plans to motivate voters - but ambition often stops short of reality. In California in 2004, Bush adviser Karl Rove promised to put a huge corps of volunteers on the street, but the campaign fizzled by early fall and its staff and resources were shifted to competitive states. Bush lost California in 2000 and 2004 by double-digit margins.
Bush's challenge in California in 2004 shares some similarities with those now faced by his fellow Republican, the governor.
Because of the registration gap, internal Bush campaign memos from 2004 reasoned that the president would need about 1.6 million non-Republican votes to win if the turnout was similar to 2000.
To reach that number, they concluded Bush would have to double his support from independents and Democrats compared to 2000. The estimates assumed Bush would get virtually all the GOP votes cast of those who went to the polls, and it's likely Schwarzenegger will need to do the same this year.
The memos recommended the president target districts with high numbers of swing voters - those where Bush's support in 2000 exceeded the number of registered Republicans.
Indications are Schwarzenegger is following a similar route.
While working on a plan to whip up GOP turnout in November, he formally launched his campaign Wednesday in Democrat-tilting Humboldt County, rather than the Republican heartland. He won 41 percent of the vote in Humboldt County in the 2003 recall, even though Republicans make up about 29 percent of the registration there.
The two major Republicans in the recall - Schwarzenegger and state Sen. Tom McClintock, who is now running for lieutenant governor - together won more than half the vote in that county.
In every county Schwarzenegger visited that day - Humboldt, Shasta, Butte and Placer - Schwarzenegger's percentage of the recall vote suggests a high number of swing voters supported him.
On a visit to his Sacramento headquarters on election night, Schwarzenegger alluded to the importance of his emerging volunteer army.
"We have many, many volunteers that have been working up and down the state," he said. "There's nothing we can do by ourselves." |
