Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 161.57

-1.8%

2:49 PM EST

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To: slacker711 who wrote (142745)	6/13/2006 4:28:59 PM
From: Jim Mullens	Read Replies (1) of 152472

Slacker, Re: “Just a random pessimistic thought that occurred to me on an ugly day....since Nokia's license expires in April, will Qualcomm's '07 guidance have to assume that the contract isnt extended? It would only be one quarter because of the lag, but because of Nokia's large WCDMA share, it will probably be worth more than 5 cents a share.” Just what we needed, more pessimism :>) My latest FY07 guesstimate based upon Modoff’s latest handset sales estimatesl is ~ $2.00. That translates into the following potential share price targets for 2007 based on the then current year (FY07) earnings- $2.00 x 42.5 PE (1.7 x 25% LT growth) = $85>>Normal mkt & realistic Q 3-5 year gwth est $2.00 x 32.4 PE (1.3 x 25% LT growth) = $65>>Depressed mkt & realistic Q 3-5 year gwth est $2.00 x 26.0 PE (1.3 x 20% LT growth) = $52>>Depressed mkt & curr analyst Q 3-5 year gwth est WRT Qualcomm having to lower guidance reflective of a potential loss of revenue from the NOK licensing issue, IMO that would not be necessary as long as Qualcomm openly discloses this risk. Businesses operate in environments with many potential risks, and I don’t believe SarbOx (etc) has gone so far as to require companies to provide guidance for each potential risk outcome. (For that matter, companies are not even required to provide FY guidance, ref BRCM)

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