Analysis: Arthritis market to hit $10B
WASHINGTON, DC, United States (UPI) -- An analyst report released this week estimates the rheumatoid arthritis treatment market will balloon to more than $10 billion by 2015, driven by current tumor necrosis factor-alpha inhibitors and novel biological agents.
Abbott`s Humira will see the biggest leap, and Centocor`s Remicade will actually see a decrease in sales, according to the report from the analyst firm Decision Resources.
New agents coming down the pipeline from UCB Pharma and Centocor also will generate significant sales, the report said, but they won`t become blockbusters.
'The increased uptake of current therapies and future agents are going to drive substantial sales growth in the next few years,' Melissa Stolper, an analyst with Decision Resources and author of the report, told United Press International.
The reason for the predicted increased uptake of the currently available TNF-alpha inhibitors is that physicians are becoming more familiar with the drugs, which first hit the market in the late 1990s.
'Physicians are seeing the long term efficacy of these drugs and the long term side effect profile ... and so their willingness to use these drugs in more patients will be fostered,' Stolper said.
Humira and Amgen/Wyeth`s Enbrel will be the biggest benefactors because they are self-administered, which gives them an edge over the IV-administered Remicade, she said. In addition, Remicade is the only one of the three that is not a humanized molecule.
'As the number of options increase, we expect Remicade (sales) will decrease for more convenient dosing and safer composition,' Stolper said.
Humira, because it has to be administered less frequently, will see a bigger jump in sales than Enbrel. Humira sales will spike from $924 million to $2.7 billion in 2015, while Enbrel sales will experience a more modest increase, from $1.95 billion to $2.55 billion.
Remicade will drop from its current level of $1.7 billion to $1.1 billion. However, Centocor is developing in conjunction with Schering another TNF-alpha inhibitor that is fully humanized called golimumab that could rake in sales of $351 million in 2015, the report estimated.
The report projects the TNF-alpha inhibitor class as a whole will rise from its current level of $4.6 billion to $7.2 billion in 2015.
Another drug in this class that is expected to launch soon is UCB Pharma`s Cimzia. Stolper estimated that drug will bring in sales of $502 million in 2015.
Two recently launched drugs for rheumatoid arthritis -- Bristol-Myers Squibb`s Orencia and Genentech/Biogen Idec`s Rituxan -- will also do well.
Orencia, which was launched in the United States in February, is projected to generate sales of $1.1 billion in 2015.
Rituxan, which was previously approved for non-Hodgkin`s lymphoma, won`t do quite as well due to safety concerns raised by the three black-box warnings on labeling. The drug is estimated to bring in sales of $318 million in 2015.
Overall, the biologics will continue to still only be prescribed for a minority of rheumatoid arthritis patients, but they will still experience sales growth due to their high price.
'They`re so expensive that even slight increases in patient uptake is going to result in significant sales growth,' Stolper said.
Claire Churchill, an analyst with Datamonitor, told UPI the high prices may turn out to be a negative for the manufacturers.
'If the uptake continues as it is, sales are going to double in 10 years, which, as you can imagine, is going to (make) quite an impact on the healthcare system,' Churchill said.
If the prices continue to rise, this could lead to some kind of action, such as a price cap, particularly in Europe, she said.
This could result in manufacturers lowering prices and taking lower profit margins, which could impact their bottom line, she added.
Copyright 2006 by United Press International
news.monstersandcritics.com |
