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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: michael97123 who wrote (188644)6/13/2006 10:08:06 PM
From: Bilow  Read Replies (1) of 281500
 
Hi michael97123; Re: "Regional war against Iran and shiaa part of iraq? Hell then iran does need the bomb. I think you are wrong. I think sunniland is where the atrocities will be and there will be battles at the borders. Shiaa and kurds will take those border areas and populations of shiaa will move into the shiaa state and leave sunniland."

I think you're making that rather unreasonable assumption that the surrounding nations will stay out of it.

War is how humans figure out who is wrong about the basic question of who has greater strength relative to a chunk of territory. The territory under discussion is the Sunni parts of Iraq. If the participants were restricted to be only the inhabitants of Iraq I think you would be correct. But there have been very few Arab civil wars that did not involve military involvement by other Arab states.

The reason for this is that the Arab states have very deep ethnic bonds. When a child cries in Haditha, its cry is heard, and more importantly understood, throughout the Arab world.

When England got involved in a war in Europe (twice) the US eventually got sucked in too. The reason is the same. When Winston Churchill spoke, the American people listened, and understood. We speak the same language.

A civil war in Iraq could involve a lot more than just Iraq. I'm not saying it has too. I'm saying that there is a substantial probability of it.

-- Carl
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