Poll: "Had enough?" Not Enough to Lift Congressional Dems to Power
With control of Congress on the line this fall, GOP is down but not yet out, a new Zogby International telephone poll shows
Voters nationwide are unhappy with Republican-led Washington right now, but Democrats haven't convinced them to make sweeping changes on Capitol Hill, a new Zogby International telephone poll shows.
While they hold a significant advantage over the GOP, Democrats muster support from barely half of those respondents when asked whether "Republicans deserve to retain control of Congress, or is it time for the Democrats to take over and run things?" just 30% said they think Republicans deserve to stay in charge.
The telephone survey of likely voters, conducted June 2-6, 2006, included 1,028 respondents and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.
Democrats are seen as the better party to handle most important issues facing the nation, the poll shows, with the notable exception of fighting terrorism, where Republicans continue to retain a double-digit edge.
And while voters followed a traditional pattern of giving their own representative a positive job performance rating while at the same time giving negative marks to Congress as a whole, fewer than half (49%) gave their own congressman a positive job rating. Those living in districts with Republican congressmen gave them a 53% positive job rating and a 43% negative rating, while those living in districts represented by Democrats gave their congressmen a 51% positive and a 48% negative rating. Just 21% give Congress in general a positive job approval rating. Pollster John Zogby, President and CEO of Zogby International, said such numbers could be the foundation for a strong anti–incumbent mood swing that could cut against both Democrats and Republicans.
Asked if the nation would be better off if Democrats win control of Congress, 43% said "yes," while 25% said it would be worse off, and 25% said it would make no difference. Fewer said they thought their own personal situation would improve if Democrats were to take over the committee chairmanships on Capitol Hill.
Pollster John Zogby: "Democrats still have some homework to do. By a factor of 40% to 29%, voters would choose Democrats in their congressional elections, but note that better than one in four are still undecided. That is very significant.
"The Democrats do well on several issues, but they do particularly well on their own issues - the economy, health care, Social Security, that sort of thing. However, when it comes to Republican issues - taxes, family values, and dealing with terrorism - Republicans are either tied or slightly ahead. Paint me as one who is not sure we're going to have a landslide. We may, but the results are too mixed right now to say for sure.
"Democrats appear to be picking up support from investors, veterans, married respondents, frequent WalMart shoppers, and NASCAR fans. But to win control of Congress, they would have to target Middle America - those voters who are not in their natural support base. That's not to say they have to stop being Democrats, but they have to have a program on taxes. They have to have a program on government spending. And it is clear to me that they have to come out in opposition to the war. Not only is that what the overwhelming majority of Democrats want, that's what a majority of the American
"If the congressional campaigns this year are run on terrorism and taxes, Republicans will win. If they are run on gas prices, education, health care and the environment, Democrats will win. What intrigued me is that, when it comes to ethics in government, there is almost no difference between how the parties are perceived. There is apparently no advantage for Democrats to go down that 'culture of corruption' road.
"Clearly a weakness that the Republicans have is President Bush. In this poll, when we look at President Bush, not only do we see him at 31% positive overall job performance rating, which is lowest we have ever had for him, but we also see the coalition of supporters who supported his election and reelection is crumbling. He wins just a 48% positive job approval among born-again Christians, but we also see lows among conservatives, Republicans, veterans, WalMart shoppers, and among NASCAR fans. Right now, the President is a burden for the Republican Party heading into the midterm elections."
Just 29% said they think the nation is heading in the right direction, down from 36% last month and 43% a year ago.
With intra-party squabbles over immigration policy badly splitting the Republicans, just 25% said that if they differed with their own party leaders on the issue that is most important to them, they would overlook that difference and vote for their party's congressional candidate anyway.
Nearly six in 10 (59%) Republicans said they would either vote for the Democrat, for a third party candidate, or would not vote in the race at all.
In this new Zogby poll, 31% of Republicans ranked immigration as a top issue facing the nation today. It was second only to the Iraq war. While Democrats also considered the war the top issue facing the nation, they considered jobs and the economy to be more important than immigration.
zogby.com |
