Deffeyes was a little bit fuzzy in the past, but last year he put the 50% of Qt mark in December, 2005, presumably for crude + condensate.
Since December, the EIA reports have shown falling world crude + condensate production.
Based on the HL method, Saudi Arabia is at the same point at which the prior swing producer, Texas, started its decline.
The Saudis have admitted to a 5% production decline since December.
Using only production data through 1984, Khebab generated a (HL based) post-1984 production profile for Russia. The post-1984 cumulative Russian production, through 1984, was 95% of what the HL method predicted that it would be. Russia has now pretty well caught up with where it should be, based on the HL method. (Post-1970 cumulative Lower 48 production was 99% of what the HL method predicted.)
EIA reports show Russian production falling since December, and Western oil companies appear to be headed for the door, trying to unload Russian oil fields.
The four largest producing fields in the world all appear to be declining. The second largest producing field in the world, Cantarell, is probably going to be declining at up to 40% per year, since its oil column of 825' is thinning at the rate of about 300' per year.
This final point is what puzzles me so much about people who are putting the peak years to decades in the future. Just how are we are we going to replace Ghawar, Cantarell, Burgan and Daqing?
IMO, it looks increasingly like we are facing both the Peak and a recession. As I have said before, I advise everyone to economize, localize and produce. If I am wrong, the people following my advice will have more money in the bank, less debt and a lower stress way of life. If you are wrong . .
westexas on Tuesday June 13, 2006 at 4:38 PM EST
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