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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian Oil & Gas Companies
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To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (3749)9/23/1997 9:51:00 AM
From: HAZ   of 24939
 
Kerm / All / Gulf Canada

I have noticed recently that Gulf Canada GOU has become a very active stock on NYSE, and as a matter of fact the trading volume on NYSE has overtaken the trading volume on the TSE, & MSE combined.

I haven't gone back to do a detailed analysis, to if see if this has been the case since Gulf listed on the NYSE or it is a recent phenomena, but I feel it is an important milestone.

Conclusions :

1 - U.S. and International shareholders are becoming a bigger percentage of Gulf's total shareholders. The reason I say International is because I feel they would trade in US denominated securities over Canadian denominated securities.

2 - Given this demographic data, the obvious conclusion is that Gulf trading on the TSE will follow the Gulf trading on the NYSE. The volume and liquidity will drive the market and arbitrage will always exist between the two markets.

3 - Another obvious conclusion is the Gulf Canada will trade at higher multiples typically associated with US based O & G companies. I can't give exact examples right now but I will do more research on this later.

4 - Volatility will also increase, U.S investors are much quicker to stampede to the entrance or exit gate based on their moods than are Canadian investors who are more timid and passive.

5 - I have not heard any news about Gulf's planned IPO of Gulf Indonesia here in Canada, mind you I deal with a discount brokerage TD Greenline but I haven't seen too many news articles about this issue either. The whole objective of this IPO (J.P's hub and spoke system) is to raise funds, pay off debt and make Gulf an investment grade company.
If this issue is over subscribed and Gulf gets a good price for Gulf Indonesia, then Gulf Canada will trade higher from today's prices.

This is just my opinion and not based on scientific analysis, just gut feel analysis, from the school of hard knocks.

Good Investing and Good Luck to All
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