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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 55.11-2.6%Nov 7 9:30 AM EST
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To: Ian@SI who wrote (20317)6/16/2006 10:18:16 PM
From: Biomaven  Read Replies (2) of 52153
 
(OT AMD vs. Intel)

Have about 1/3 of my AMD long position left, but still have a full INTC short position. This next quarter is going to be a complete disaster for Intel, and the following quarter may not be much better.

Conroe is (at long last) an excellent desktop chip from Intel, better than AMD's Athlon (for next few quarters at least). But the ramp to all Conroe will take Intel several quarters. Intel is steadily losing share in laptops, where up to now they have had 90% of the market. At some point they will also lose their current total domination of the corporate desktop.

Longer term (2-3 years), the Intel monopoloy is over in my view, and the two companies are headed for a duopoly. Whether it's a cut-throat duopoly (which is what we are getting this quarter) or a play-nice duopoly will determine whether both stocks do decently or will be garbage. Intel is still priced like a monopoly though, and the AMD trust suit is also a big overhang for the next several years.

Spansion (the AMD flash spin-off) may be a better bet than either (and I own more of it than AMD). Big potential leverage, and Intel will no longer use flash to pressure AMD. The cloud for Spansion is whether the long term steamroller of NAND flash from Samsung will ever crush NOR. But I think that's priced into the stock, and in a strange way helps in the longer term because it makes other companies reluctant to invest in NOR.

Peter
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