The Illusive Bonanza: Oil Shale in the U.S. —
“Pulling the Sword from the Stone”
by Randy Udall and Steve Andrews, ASPO-USA
Oil Shale — A History of HopeBuried beneath the ground in Colorado and Utah are a trillion tons of oil shale. Throughout the 20th century, men have tried and tried again to unlock the energy contained in these rocks. To date, all efforts have failed. But every twenty or thirty years, when energy prices spike, a new attempt is mounted.
The persistence is understandable—whoever unlocks this resource would capture a trillion dollar prize. But oil shale's track record is not encouraging. The rocks are stubborn—an illusive bonanza, promising much and delivering little. Despite a century of trying and $10 billion in investment, oil shale currently provides an infinitesimal 0.01% (or one ten-thousandth) of world energy.
This paper explains why oil shale is so difficult to unlock, and why the "rock that burns" may never provide more than 1% of US energy.
Oil Shale and Never-Never Land
grinningplanet.com
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A couple of points from the article on shale oil:
"In four years, they will accomplish what it would have taken Mother Nature over 10 million years to do," Udall said. "Once the rock is heated, it releases a hydrocarbon called kerogen and some natural gas. To do it on a large scale you'd need a power plant larger than any power plant in the history of Colorado. And you'd need a new power plant for each 100,000 barrel increment."
That's one power plant for every 100,000 barrels, but it takes four years to install, heat, and extract this oil. Therefore that is one power plant for every 25,000 barrels per year. That's thirty power plants per million barrels per year.
After that, the Rand Corp. estimates it could take as long as 20 years before the infrastructure is in place to fully realize the potential of oil shale - up to 3 million barrels of oil a day.
In 20 years we could possibly be up to 3 million barrels per day. And the oil sands could be up to 3 million barrels per day by that time, and perhaps the Orinoco bitumen the same. And the worlds supply of conventional oil is, by this time, declining by from three to five million barrels per day per year.
At any rate I have serious doubts about this shale oil project. Three hundred power plants in the Colorado desert? And it will take a city of employees to run these plants. Power plants take a lot of water and the city to house them a lot more. Somehow I just don't think
Correction
That's 90 power plants in the Colorado desert. Sorry about that.
Darwinian on Sunday June 18, 2006 at 10:58 AM EST |
