World CO2 emissions to rise 75 pct by 2030: EIA
By Timothy Gardner
Reuters
Tuesday, June 20, 2006; 10:40 AM
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Global emissions of the heat-trapping gas carbon dioxide will rise 75 percent from 2003 to 2030, the U.S. government forecast on Tuesday.
The world's emissions of CO2 will hit 43.7 billion tonnes in 2030, up from 25 billion tonnes in 2003, the Energy Information Administration, the statistics arm of the Department of Energy, said in its annual forecast, the International Energy Outlook.
By 2025 global CO2 emissions could hit 40.05 billion tonnes annually, a rise of 0.03 percent from its forecast issued last year, the EIA said.
Most scientists believe that a build-up in greenhouse gases, such as CO2, is raising temperatures and could bring catastrophic changes such as heatwaves, stronger storms and melting icecaps that could raise sea levels by almost three feet (one meter) by 2100.
Humans cause much of the buildup of CO2 by burning fossil fuels such as oil, gas, and coal. The EIA said coal combustion, which is growing in the United States, India and China, could overtake oil as the largest fossil fuel source of CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2030.
The forecast did not include potential effects of pending or proposed legislation, regulations, or standards, including the international emissions reduction pact known as the Kyoto Protocol.
"The Protocol does not address signatory obligations beyond 2012, making it impossible to asses its impacts on ... carbon dioxide emissions through 2030 in the context of a reference case projection," the EIA said in the forecast.
The Kyoto pact, which went into force early last year, requires 35 rich countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to an annual average about 5 percent below their 1990 levels by 2008 to 2012. Countries signed on to the agreement have agreed to set tougher caps in the second phase of the plan, but no timetable has been set for agreeing on the goals.
DEVELOPING ASIA TO SURPASS NORTH AMERICA
The report said that in four years, CO2 emissions in rapidly developing countries in Asia, such as China and India, will surpass those from North America.
In 2003, CO2 emissions of 6.8 billion tonnes from North America, a less populous region than developing countries of Asia, were about 12 percent higher than those in developing Asia, according to the EIA.
By 2010, that changes. Developing Asian countries will emit about 9.1 billion tonnes of CO2, surpassing North American emissions by about 21 percent, according to the EIA.
Emissions from North America should average 1.3 percent growth per year from 2003 to 2030 and hit 9.7 billion tonnes by 2030, the EIA said.
In developing Asian countries emissions should average 3.6 percent growth to reach 16 billion tonnes by 2030, the report said.
The United States is the world's top emitter of greenhouse gases, but withdrew from the Kyoto pact in 2001. Total U.S. emissions have risen by 15.8 percent from 1990 to 2004, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has said.
In Russia and eastern Europe, which experienced an economic downturn late last century, CO2 emissions won't return to 1990 levels until after 2025, according to the EIA.
Emissions of CO2 in developed Asian countries will rise an average 0.9 percent per year from 2003 to 2030 to 2.6 billion tonnes, while OECD European countries will build an average 0.7 percent per year to 5.1 billion tonnes over the same time, the EIA said.
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