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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: GraceZ who wrote (64114)6/20/2006 3:08:56 PM
From: Mike Johnston  Read Replies (3) of 110194
 
Another lesson is that anything can happen, even something that seems absurd, unimaginable or impossible.

Back in 1995, JDSU was trading at 25 cents. Who could have imagined, it would reach $150.00 5 years later ?
And when it was over 100, did anyone even consider it possible, that it drops down to $1.50 just 2 years later ?

Who could have imagined few years ago that a toolshed in CA would sell for $700K ? Or that Soviet Union would collapse ? Or that Nikkei would reach 20 year lows in 2002 ?
Or that one could trade half a million worth of gold from home, with a click of a mouse, for just $15 ?

So here is an exercise, what would seem impossible to occur now ?
Something that even the most bearish bear would not imagine.
An ugly depression, with hyperinflation of living costs while asset prices suffer the biggest collapse in history.
This is not a prediction just a mental exercise.

January 2010:

1. California house prices down 90% from the peak.
2. 75% of outstanding mortgages in default.
3. 40 million foreclosures.
4. 45% unemployment rate.
5. Social Security and Medicare default leading to the collapse of health care system and numerous medical facilities shutting down.
6. Most of US banks collapse and are shut down, government confiscation of private assets held in the banking system.
7. DJIA dropping back to a 1982 level of around 1000.
8. Gold at $8 thousand per ounce.
9. Oil at $675/barrel
10.US Treasuries selling for nickel on a dollar with yield to maturity (not being paid) of 38%.
11. Phoenix, AZ and Las Vegas become ghost towns.
12. Total collapse of currency, barter and economy shrinking by 90%.
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