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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: Mike Johnston who wrote (64214)6/20/2006 3:52:19 PM
From: GraceZ  Read Replies (4) of 110194
 
The long run trend is for everything to get cheaper in real terms. In other words, over time it takes less of your time, energy and resources to provide the basic necessities of life: food and shelter. This trend is thousands of years old. The only place I can think of where it got interrupted in modern times at any scale was in those countries which conducted the grand experiment of Communism.

JDSU reverting to where it did was a high probability event given the history of US publicly traded stocks and technology companies. All technology sits a top a very large mountain of failures. The low probability event is a Microsoft or an Intel. It's not lost value because incorporated in every success is the knowledge gained from the failures.

Gold would be a poor hedge in a total economic collapse, guns and ammo would be a better currency. Gold is great if your specific country fails. In a global melt down there is no safe place to convert it to goods and you can't eat it.

A low probability event would be that the US, learning from the failures of the Russian and Chinese experiments with collectivism and centralised control of the economy, decides to abandon it's movement towards socialism and Federal intervention into every day life. The elected then vote to shrink the Federal government by 90%, restoring the individual rights and freedoms as well as the personal property rights it has so grievously stripped away in the last forty years.
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