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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room
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From: Frank6/20/2006 4:47:44 PM
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The NG supply bubble(aka a 500 measely bcf) --Apparently WS is thinking summer is cool, no hurricanes and next winter warm. No other explanation for PTEN to be selling in 25s with all they have going on. But here is what I believe: The lower NG prices go, the higher the demand. And anyone who thinks major demand is not waiting in the wings does not know the dynamics of NG. If we get 5-5.50 demand will rush in quickly. Now what happens when the 500 extra bcf is gone? Realization will set in that the NG game is essentially just beginning. These are some facts I urge you to keep in your mind as we get punched in the face like today. I plot my revenge thusly: (1) Depletion is 32% according to EOG, (2) NG production is flat to down with every rig turning, (3) Outmigration of Rigs from GOM is going to total 25 units, (4) No one admits the shocking truth --PRB production is declining -(5) Hydro is going to drop off as summer wears, nuclear is maxed and coal piles are low. ( 6) We are building over 100 ethanol plants --virtually all use NG and also add to electricity demand and the great bulk of new electricity demand is met by NG.(7) LNG imports are running 30% behind projections --pure and simple. And (8) Canada will not be increasing NG imports this year. These facts are the wave of reality coming closer and closer to the energy markets , which continue their myopic denials and set us up for a lot of money soon--Frank
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