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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: Mike Johnston who wrote (64222)	6/21/2006 2:33:56 AM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) of 110194

'The question is when and how would the Fed intervene, with the only way out being either suffering through the depression or going all out to defeat it and causing hyperinflation. I believe that if left to free markets, the scenario that you gave not only has a good probability, but it should happen based on laws of economics, given the scope of monetary and fiscal mismanagement, and government intervention in past years.' We never would have gotten into this current mess without all this social engineering, fiscal irresponsibility and most inept administration of our lifetimes. So if anything expect even more fiscal mismanagement and government interaction on the downturn. I'm thinking more like a serious recession or two and prolonged stagflation the result. Maybe Dow trades between 7-12k for another 10 yrs and long term treasuries get to double digits in that time. CA home prices drop on a real basis 75% but nominal terms the drop will be zero over the period with some bottom off 30-40% at most 3-4 yrs out.

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