CEPH - CEPHALON Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : CEPH - CEPHALON

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From: tom pope	6/21/2006 9:21:49 AM
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Merrill: Cephalon, Inc. (CEPH; $54.65; C-2-9) Maintain Neutral. Scenario Analysis: FDA Action Date for FEBT (Follow-On to Pain Drug Actiq) is June 30. Our model assumes an approvable action and quick turnaround, leading to final approval and launch in 4Q. In this scenario, we believe CEPH could trade up to $58-62. If launch is delayed until 2Q07 (possible with an approvable letter and submission of a Tier 2 response), we est the stock could trade down to $48-51. To assess a worst case, we removed FEBT from our model, which assumes a not approvable letter or approvable letter that necessitates significant additional work that CEPH may be unwilling to conduct. In this unlikely scenario, we est CEPH could trade down to $34-37.

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