Hello,
This is my first post on SI: I have lurked on and off at SI for years and have just registered a few days ago.
Thanks RR for the ARU heads up!
I have done what I would call an "order of magnitude" (OOM) type resource estimate for the Fruta del Norte (FDN) zone using a cross-sectional estimate, constructing rectangular ore blocks that are projected 50m north and south of each section. This is very back of the envelope type stuff, although somewhat more complex than the Cannacord model. It uses data released thru hole 06-58.
My estimated block grades are very informal, but I consider them relatively conservative. The block grades range from 1 to 20g Au/tonne. Number of blocks per section range from 2 on 9583100 to 10 on 9583400 and are of widely varying cross-sectional area. I think the greatest license I have taken so far is the projection of zones down dip to elevations of about 1000 to 1020 m.
Assumed:
- Overall dip of mineralisation = 80 degrees to the west.
- Bulk density 2.5 g/t (conservative)
Yielding the following estimates:
Line Oz Au
9583100 - 321,451
9583200 - 318,080
9583300 - 1,356,450
9583400 - 4,059,240
FDN total 6,055,220
Bona/
Las Penas 517,000* *Data from Aurelian.
(B/LP)
Total OOM est. 6,572,220 oz
Using fully diluted share structure of 33,000,000
Using $50/oz insitu Au value (my preference) = US $ 9.96/sh
" $100/oz " " " = US $19.91/sh
Playing with numbers, lets say that there is a minimum potential of an additional 2,000,000 ozs combined potential from section line 9583500 and from the ground between B/LP and FDN.
Thats 8,572,220 ozs with an insitu value at $50/oz giving $12.98/sh or $25.97/shr at $100/0z valuation.
This system looks very robust and I think that these numbers are realistic. It appears to me that this project is quickly headed towards the upper range of size for deposits of this type (Low sulphidation epithermal thingamajigs).
Some larger examples of these deposits
(millions of oz Au)
Round Mountain, US 11+
Martha, NZ 10+
El Penon, Chile 5+
Karangahake, NZ 4.2
Hishikari, Japan 4
Kupol, Rus 4+
Gunung Pongkor, Indo 3.3
Midas, US 2.5+
Vera-Nancy, Aus 3
Mule Canyon, US 3
Sleeper, US 2.3
Porgera Zone VII, New 2
Guinea
The Martha, Karangahake and Golden Cross mines in the Coromandel Peninsula of NZ have reserves and production in excess of 15 million ounces Au in an area of less than 72 sq km. Aurelian has over 800 sq kilometers of ground with at least 33 known gold prospects.
Some concern has been expressed others over potential size limitations based on a vertically restricted, static boiling zone limiting the potential extent of gold deposition. To infer such a limitation so early in the exploration phase is rather short sighted in light of well documented complexities in some deposits of this type, for instance boiling zones that migrate vertically over the life of the hydrothermal system, and more importanly the role of fluid mixing in precipitating gold out of solution in these types of systems. Fluid mixing has become increasingly recognized, particlularly thru the research of geologist Terry Leach, as the dominant factor in gold precipitation in epithermal deposits. Mixing of upwelling gold bearing acidic fluids with relatively alkaline near surface waters is a much more efficient mechanism for deposition of gold and can take place over a much greater vertical extent than in a simple, vertically static boiling zone bearing system (typically cited as 200 - 250 m maximum vertical extent) Examples of some of the larger known vertical extents of these types of deposits:
Talisman, NZ 700m
Martha, NZ 600m
Kupol, Russia 540m+
Palmarejo, Mex 400m+
Cibaliung, Indo 400m+
(+ = Open at depth)
So far the drilling at FDN has demonstrated mineralisation over a vertical extent of about 250m, with the posiibility of expansion with more drilling. For now it remains to be seen what the vertical limitations of the FDN zone are.
Looking at the topography of the FDN area, a strong topographical WNW-SSE linear has me wondering if the FDN may be cut by a cross fault just to the N of line 9583500.
Warning, this analysis is very preliminary and will undoubtedly change much as more data becomes available. These estimations should only be viewed as theoretical and are most useful in contrast with and comparison to other's models.
For the record, I am quite long ARU.
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