Re: [and ALWAYS cut the Sunnis out of wealth from the oil] "Your arguments make perfect sense when you inject statements like this as basis for them. If the government does this, your scenario becomes more likely. The argument then boils down to IF this will happen. You state it as a certainty..."
That's because it has ALREADY STARTED.
One of the big holdups with the new Constitution was the KURDISH demand that they get to keep *most* of the $$$$$$ (I believe it was technically something like '80% of the revenue') from any 'NEW' oil development on their lands.
And to ONLY send to the national government the revenue from 'OLD' producing oil wells (which are mostly all seriously declining, in poor condition, etc.)
(The Sunnis opposed this --- main reason it took so long to approve the Constitution --- but it was finally passed with the new/old wealth split INTACT in the rules. Sunnis, of course, remain opposed. So would you or I I suppose if it were our country, and we were about to be cut out of oil money.... :-)
Naturally, the exact same revenue split applies to the Southern oil producing region (under Shiite control). Money from 'new production' will stay mostly in Shiite hands, with only the 'old oil' money being passed along to the 'national government' for use by the rest of the 'nation'. (I think that you will soon see lots of 'old' oil production shut down as the equipment and infrastructure wears out and --- when 'new' equipment brings it back online... it will *magically* be classified as 'new production'. :-)
The Sunnis --- having little to no oil under their lands --- are being CUT OUT from the oil revenues....
Re: [So, you can 'hope' all you want to --- but I don't think the Sunnis are gonna be 'happy' without $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$.] "I don't "hope" that sunnis will be happy with no money, I hope the unity government has the intelligence, compassion and common sense to run things fairly."
Well... hope springs eternal....
Re: [No kidding. That's EXACTLY what I argued would happen in the civil war.] "I think the US can help the side that is RIGHT."
WHICH side is THAT?
Fundamentalist Shiites aligned with IRAN, or fundamentalist Sunnis aligned with Saudi Arabia? (Though, I'll volunteer that the Kurds look to be the best of the bunch... and they are GUARANTEED to need us for a while --- if for no other reason then to keep out *other* ally, Turkey, from declaring war on them and invading their lands!)
Re: "If we pull out, then the side that is WRONG may be in charge. At that point we would be worse off than ever."
P-L-E-A-S-E! Mostly what we are doing is giving the locals a built-in excuse to blame all their problems on 'foreigners', and we are BOOSTING the recruitment of jihadists and fundamentalist insurgents and nationalists who all want to take pot shots at 'Uncle Sam'.
If we get out --- taking the big 'target sign' off of our backs --- and the locals get about the business of settling their affairs by fighting each OTHER --- few will have the time or inclination or *reason* to fight us any more. Eventually, the peace that will emerge will HOLD, because it will have been dictated by LOCALS, not by FOREIGNERS.
Re: [Looks that way.] "You say I am naive, I say you are a pessimist."
But I don't think I'm being 'pessimistic'... I think I'm being REALISTIC and OPTIMISTIC. I believe that by not standing in the way of the inevitable local conflict and settlement, we will in the long-run, arrive at EXACTLY what we've desired ALL ALONG: Democracy and Justice in the region... (it's just that there may be more then one 'country' on the land that is called 'Iraq' right now.... and, SO WHAT? Why should that be a problem? We've supported the principle of self-determination elsewhere in the world, so why not here? Why can't Iraqis have the right to decide for themselves whether they want to remain part of a larger empire, or not --- exactly the same as we ourselves decided long ago that we no longer wanted to remain part of the British Empire?)
Re: [the *only* government that will be able to hold all of 'Iraq' together is an Autocratic one (a Dictatorship --- ] "You have been crystal clear on this. I have a more optimistic and hopeful view of humanity. Get rid of the hateful influences over time and people will choose peace and freedom."
Sure they will. I AGREE! (But that doesn't mean that they will choose to remain in the same artificial country! Our own forefathers didn't....)
Re: "...If shia and sunni populations can learn tolerance as Christians, Jews and Muslims do in the U.S.,"
(Don't forget my other point: that, in the WEST, Christianity *already* had a huge series of wars between Catholics and Protestants --- only after which did freedom and the Enlightenment flower. Islam has never yet had that confrontation between Sunni and Shiite. It may be very hard for them to advance beyond their worship of the past until they have something of the kind....
Re: "Your vision has no hope."
I think that my 'vision' IS HOPE. (Remember: I predict *success* for Western ideals like Democracy, Capitalism, freedom.) And that, by *ignoring reality* one only dooms hope to failure.... |
