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Biotech / Medical : Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX)
NBIX 145.00+2.2%Dec 19 9:30 AM EST

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To: Robohogs who wrote (1611)6/24/2006 11:18:50 AM
From: fred hayes  Read Replies (2) of 1834
 
>What is wrong with this analysis?< Nothing, Jon. I have never understood the assertions that the IR versions have no value. I'm not surprised that a company like PFE would have no interest in only the IR version, but that does not translate into the IR version having no value. With some luck, the IR version ought to support the new and improved market cap for nbix if the common wisdom about it being non competitive turns out to be wrong. Maybe I'm missing something obvious here (it happens alot) and hoping others will comment. I'm still puzzled by the timing of pfe's pullout. I am not convinced pfe is abandoning the sleep market. They had nothing to gain by terminating before fda feedback and would give up some leverage in negotiating to buy another sleep product or company. I'm backing off my prior strong belief that pfe already had an informal understanding with sepr on the shape of an sepr buyout, but I still think this is a good possibility. If this were to be the case, and if there were other potential sepr buyers, it could account for the timing. This would also mean that the chances of MR salvage would be greater for nbix, since pfe may have been in a bind on terminating Indiplon before they knew for sure what the fda would require. Wishful thinking, maybe...probably? Anyway, at the new market cap, MR could be looked at as a free lottery ticket (along with the rest of the pipe) if the IR version has value that is being overlooked.
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