Date: Wed Jun 28 2006 10:58
trotsky (@stock market) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
and, by implication, this also concerns the XAU, which continues to move in perfect tandem: these 'gap & cr*p' opens are often a bearish short term sign. in bull phases you tend to see the opposite action ( gap down at the open, followed by a steady advance ) .
while the sentiment picture continues to look encouraging ( for both stocks in general as well as the gold sector - e.g. the XAU p/c OI ratio is now at 1.32, and yesterday the put/call volume ratio clocked in at 2.35 ) , the market fails to act on it, which i regard as a big negative. it SHOULD rise, but it doesn't. when positive technical backdrop data are ignored by the market it usually doesn't portend anything good.
otoh, longer term, we can probably look forward to the gold sector decoupling, namely as soon as the yield curve steepens - i.e. as soon as the market becomes convinced that the rate hike cycle is over. it's far from convinced right now - so far, every hike is immediately greeted with FF futures raising the probabilities of yet another one coming down the pike. the reality is though that once the curve inverts, the end of the cycle is definitely close - therefore the most likely short term outcome is that gold and gold shares both spend some time in a lower trading range, similar to the summer months of '04 and '05, until the rates picture clears up ( which happily is bound to coincide with the seasonally strong period ) .
Date: Wed Jun 28 2006 09:49
trotsky (Alberich, 7:26) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
as Arthur Silber has correctly remarked, the US mainstream press is extremely servile and tends toward self-censorship. note that many of the supporters of the current regime demand OUTRIGHT censorship on a regular basis. as Silber further states, there can be little doubt that another incident like 9-11 ( something that has become more, not less, likely as a result of the occupation of Iraq ) could easily lead to these demands receiving serious consideration.
as far as the NYT is concerned, its shameful pre-war reporting ( which amounted to incitement ) means it has a lot to atone for. and yet, it still thinks it must ask 'permission' before reporting on yet another crime perpetrated by this revolting administration. we're in the middle of a paranoid Kafka novel.
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