trotsky (frustrated@monetization) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
it's possible, but imo overall foreign demand for US debt will only truly fall off in conjunction with a shrinking trade deficit and the accompanying recession. however, the Fed can be expected to attempt to act countercyclically in that case. in fact, i fully expect those 'unconventional measures' Uncle Ben promised before he became chairman to make a reappearance in due time.
Date: Fri Jun 30 2006 15:23
trotsky (frustrated@Fed ) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
note that this money becomes a lot more in the fractional reserves sytem via the mutliplier. i.e. bank lending expands at multiples of these injections.
Date: Fri Jun 30 2006 15:13
trotsky (Elliott) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
i can imagine - hands full with the disaster in Iraq? if i were you i'd also hide in shame in view of the catastrophe you and your ilk have set into motion. as to your buddy fence post - his propaganda cut and pasties may be suited for little green fascists or similar places, but hardly kitco. on the few occasion when he has uttered an independent thought it became quite clear why he's so seldom doing that.
Date: Fri Jun 30 2006 14:53
trotsky (frustrated, 14:02) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
if so, then the Fed's balance sheet should expand. which it regularly does of course, but any really sizeable monetization effort should be visible by the expansion accelerating.
it all depends on whether the new FF rate is high enough to deter credit demand. if credit demand remains strong ( and it HAS remained strong thus far ) , then the Fed will have to pump a lot to keep the rate 'on target'.
Date: Fri Jun 30 2006 14:48
trotsky (frustrated, 13:54) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
it's of course possible that we're in B of an evolving a-b-c from that May high as suggested by Kapex. if so, we should get some confirmation from the sentiment indicators - often B waves are marked by a strong surge in bullish sentiment. this hasn't happened yet ( on the contrary - the indicators show sentiment is now more bearish than at the 2005 low ) .
so if it's a B wave, it should still travel further - maybe after a brief pullback from the 145 resistance.
trotsky (flash) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
what passes for your mind is truly amazing. it seems nothing your interventionist masters do will NOT immediately see you prone in arse-kissing mode. not even when they make nice with evil communists. you're really a piece of work Mr. chickenhawk smear artist. oh by the way, how's that trip to Baghdad coming along?
Date: Fri Jun 30 2006 13:42
trotsky (WilE@silver) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
CDE and HL both look good for at least a retracement move here, and maybe more.
Kapex re. wave position: we shouldn't dismiss the possibility that the move from the March low to the May high was in fact wave B of a large A-B-C structure. if so, then the decline from the May high was the C. i'm not saying that's the way it is, just noting it's a strong possibility. also, as Raja has suggested, the current rally could be an X followed by another a-b-c to end the correction. this latter possibility would fit nicely with the idea that the general market will suffer weakness in the fall to put in the 4-year and presidential cycle low.
Date: Fri Jun 30 2006 12:43
trotsky (Bleuler@Vietnam) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
"U.S. officials continue to maintain that it was necessary to invade and occupy Iraq, where U.S. troops have killed and maimed tens of thousands of people, because the world could not have withstood a brutal dictator such as Saddam Hussein in power.
Well, guess where Donald Rumsfeld was this week. Vietnam! Yes, communist Vietnam! And guess who he was meeting and flirting with and entering into agreements with. Yes, the communist leaders of that country!
Yes, I am referring to the same Vietnam where 60,000 American men died at the hands of the Vietnamese communists. Imagine that! "
"Did I mention why Rumsfeld is playing footsie with the Vietnamese communists? To enter into an agreement “to increase their military contacts and to discuss ways to broaden their defense cooperation, American officials said.”
I swear I’m not making this up! It’s straight from yesterday’s New York Times. Think about that for a moment: The U.S. government and the Vietnamese communist regime are “broadening their defense cooperation.” "
scroll down to June 7 for the remainder...
fff.org
Date: Fri Jun 30 2006 12:33
trotsky (hey flash) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Baghdad still beckons. we're breathlessly awaiting your live reports about the great progress being made there and how the search for WMDs is coming along. if you're scared, put on some camouflage. best disguise yourself as a fence post - that should come easy.
Date: Fri Jun 30 2006 12:17
trotsky (frustrated@ANTP) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
its earnings are highly cyclical. it has a bad report one quarter, and a good one the next. however, you are correct, i really don't care about its fundamentals one whit. i only watch the chart, it's strictly a short term trading vehicle for me.
Date: Fri Jun 30 2006 12:13
trotsky (@silver stocks) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
i've moved back into them for a trade. they're discounting a much lower silver price, and what's more, short positions in this group have jumped up like crazy. for instance, short interest in CDE has jumped by 40% ( ! ) to 22.5 million shares.
Date: Fri Jun 30 2006 12:03
trotsky (@the Fed) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
why the Fed can NEVER know where the 'neutral interest rate' is ( its own actions constantly shift this rate - only a free market can provide the information that the bureaucrats can not possibly have ) :
mises.org |
