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To: skinowski who wrote (134042)	7/2/2006 9:36:44 AM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (2) of 209892

Model update: Since last Thursday I have done a lot of development of my model. The model now would have been long on Thursday. Just a little extra constant term does that. I also found that there is an indicator which gives a good forecast of price movements (assuming we don't enter the persistent overbought/undersold states) up to 4 days out. I myself find that pretty unbelieveable but it is there (I haven't investigated but less accurate forecasts might be possible for longer periods). Currently the model is long and suggests that the rally lasts through Thursday (July 6th) before reversing. Down days before there aren't refutations of the model, but a decline in the full (5,5,3) stochastic would be a failure of the forecast. I also made progress in identifying the persistent overbought/oversold states. The model flips betweeen two states - one trending and one cycling. I now have a simple model of the trend in the persistent state. But it is not very forecastable if at all - it is a type of random walk. But the divergence between the current state of that model and the state of the model for the non-persistent states indicates the onset of the persistent state and tells you to ignore the regular model's predictions. My latest idea is that the whole thing looks like the sunspot cycle. The sun usually has regular cycles that are easy to model statistically. But during the Maunder Minimum in the 18th Century the cycle broke down and there were no sunspots..... I will let the thread know if we get into the persistent state instead of reversing on Friday. So this is my next test. On an E-Wave basis I assume that last Friday was wave 4 of the C or 3 of the move up from June 14. Wave 5 should last through Thursday and then either a new downleg or Wave IV of the up move should start.

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