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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: russwinter who wrote (65144)	7/3/2006 12:14:28 PM
From: gregor_us	Read Replies (2) of 110194

Good Morning Russ. Glad to See You've Added the Boys from Brazil meme to your kit-bag. I mean, Brazilification. It works. The changing-places theme, with Brazil, might occur for the US in all sorts of ways in the years ahead.... Meanwhile, I thought this morning's discussion on the Oil Drum re: Saudi production and their more recent global grab for offshore rigs, illustrated well what I've been tracking over the past 2-3 years. theoildrum.com My working model for 2006 was that Oil would finally find the trigger-price for a global recession, and then the first big chapter in the energy story would cool down for a while. What I did not anticipate was that global central bankers might try to head that price-discovery off, at the pass. Now I am left to wonder whether the Spring smackdown and continuing rate-hike efforts may have served only to re-load the situation with the requisite power, to get us to new levels. The ironies are appearing at many levels. Whatever the outcome, oil is going to find the trigger levels soon enough--either with the help, or, hindrence of monetary policy. Or, perhaps in total disregard of those policies. Best, G.

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