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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: russwinter who wrote (65186)	7/4/2006 10:14:08 AM
From: gregor_us	Read Replies (1) of 110194

Was Not Aware that JPY on a Trade-Weighted Basis is as cheap as it's been since 1985. (I just got this from a forex-guy interview via Singapore). Meanwhile, I interpret JGB and Nikkei trading action to indicate the BOJ pulls the trigger next week (Nikkei is relieved and JGB has made all its moves for now), but I find it interesting the JPY trading action is clearly more skeptical. One can split the difference here, I think, and probably begin to price in that the BOJ does indeed go next week, but, the rate differential with the EUR is going to remain for longer than people expect--because the BOJ having hiked next week probably sits back for a while, and resumes baby steps. Culturally it's really interesting to see how the Japanese are set up here with a multi-decade fear of Deflation now so ingrained, so calcified, that clearly inflation is going to have to really blow past some big targets over time, to get the BOJ moving. I think it's reasonable to say Russ the BOJ is going to purposely, consciously stay behind the curve for some time, maybe years. G

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