Additional Stock Picks from Posters on CMM.V SH board
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FIRST POSTER
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I too am holding CMM long-term but believe that I should not have more than 20%
of my portfolio in a single stock no matter what I believe. So thanks for all the information on juniors, especially those who are now or soon to be producers.
This is a great board and I have learned a lot about analysis.
The only juniors that were not mentioned that I have been following or own are
CMM’s neighbor
NSM who is going into production this July with costs maybe round $290 and 15,000 oz--20,000 oz for 2006 and a major drilling announcement in the works;
AUQ who is starting production in July at costs of $177 per oz, a Guatemalan leach pad venture with maybe 20,000 oz in 2006;
ADA who is closing on a zinc property in Nova Scotia with a 1,500 tons per day mill that does zinc or gold and about 1.3M oz in gold properties surrounding
the mill. Don’t have any idea about production because they just bought another junior miner and I still need to do DD.
SAS:The last interesting junior is SAS who just reduced their shares from 840 M to about 44 M on a 1 for 20 deal. SAS could produce 350,00-400,000 oz in 2007 if
they get Aquarius on line and their other 3 producing properties running. Would expect their price to drop from $1.90 over the next two months as is typical of
most reverse splits.
stockhouse.ca
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SECOND POSTER
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My definition of the 5 best juniors all encompass the characteristics a junior
producer should have;
1) stable and declining cash costs
2) stable or rising production
3) growth/exploration opportunities
4) management that delivers
5) politically stability
CMM defines all of these characteristics. I have recently heard others talk of
CMM's share float as being high. I think not. F/D is 135,000,000. Or would you rather have QRL 500,000,000 +, or a KRY with 230,000,000 +???
I recently wrote a post titled 5 best juniors. I have been partying all weekend, so here are my 5 best juniors.
1) CMM (obviously)
2) SGR (gold deposits and expl. very undervalued, just started production on new mine now 3 producing mines with another coming in a few months, cash costs $280, 4-5 mill oz. total reserves, new gold discoveries and new 43-101 soon,
all in manitoba!)
3) CS (Just started production in mexico copper-silver-zinc, $30 total cost per tonne will fetch $230 per tonne, completely overlooked by street, 1000tpd start
to double in 1 year to 2000tpd which means production will double, cfps projected at 0.50cents p/y at current prices which is trading currently at less than 4 times 07
4) GPR (fast becoming one of the top 5 silver producers in the world, mexican properties have lots of silver-zinc-lead, very undervalued reserves, strong
management
5) NSM (for the simple fact that its on the same belt as CMM, bulk sample to occur this year, 43-101 soon, could be the next CMM
HH
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THIRD POSTER
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See a lot of discussion about other junior golds. I try to look at em all. The valuation for CMM is simply better than any other that I've come across in my travels.
Give me lowest valuation plus huge potential in Peru any day.
As for another excellent value, take a gander at Roca Mining. (ROK)
Astoundingly profitable Moly mine starting up in Q4 in B.C. Payback is three months. Trading at less than 1x '07 fully diluted cash flow (incl the $10MM PP). Sprott just bought $2MM PP with no warrants attached. Salman is trying to
close a $10MM PP at $0.71 with no warrants attached. Rare as hen's teeth to see a junior raising cash without the usual warrant give away. It speaks to the extremely good profitability of the mine and that it will be throwing off so
much cash they don't need to raise any more, so no need to dilute shareholders with warrants.
stockhouse.ca
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FOURTH POSTER
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SGR
:First SGR cost is $285 as they claim. I'll wait for qtr numbers to confirm.
I am looking for CMM to outperform SGR if POG goes higher which I am betting on now. and SGR to outperform if POG dropped back to the 500 range.
I called for the breakout on wednesday. and confirmed on Thursday. I entered big on CMM. It was me who launched the breakout by taking CIBC order. It was so obvious on all stocks and POG.
Funds got burned shortening heavily Gold on 580 trying to bring down for other lower bottom. I was watching closely and saw them losing as POG broke EMA(10).
They are running to cover now. There is a resistance @ $614 Fib(38). When broken we will run to 635 Fib(50).
I am looking for more covering next week. Too bad those guys still don't understand that POG is so cheap under 875.
That Pivot 580 killed them. I been calling for 3 weeks that POG did a bottom and heading higher after it broke 580.
I am looking for the stellar move to start mid-end july. First target is 682.
Good luck all
stockhouse.ca
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FIFTH POSTER
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What about these potential 5 winners as we head into the fall and the next leg
up in the price of gold ---
exall (exl),
glencairn (ggg),
typhoon (too),
skygold (skv),
staccato (cat).
Own or have owned them all at one time.
stockhouse.ca
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SIXTH POSTER
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My biggest holding is CMM but I will submit 2 others that are looking very good
for this fall,
V.TLG and V.WWR.
Both are working in Canada.
Good Luck to all.
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SEVENTH POSTER
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like cmm.v but also have quite a few other junior golds.
SGR.V
San Gold, sgr.v has just restarted mining and is guiding for 80,000oz. Has opened one nearby mine and looks like has another possibility. Should pour first gold in September 06.
stockhouse.com
Royaly Standard, rsm.v, has just started mining in Nevada.
Guiding for 36,000 oz run rate. Will apply to license second mine next year.
stockhouse.com
Cusac, cqc.to, is about to reopen a 30,000 oz mine. It is relatively short lived but plan to use the cashflow to explore their bigger nearby prospect.
stockhouse.com
New Guinea Gold, ngg.v, is moving towards opening their Sinvit mine this year.
They have 11 other New Guinea prospects and their Imwauna prospect is reporting
excellent gold and silver.
stockhouse.com
bmgx.obA little off the beaten path is Battle Mountain Gold, bmgx.ob
This is a royalty gold play. They purchased the royalty portfolio of IAMGOLD recently. They recently sold/spinoff their exploration portfolio to concentrate on royalty plays.
Should be low overhead and had 2.3 million cashflow last year
at much lower gold prices. They have 4 producing mines and a 5th likely to start in 2007.
stockhouse.com
stockhouse.ca
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EIGHT POSTER
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Nice to see that we did end up on the positive side, at close on Friday.
I just find it very frustrating that there is so much dumping of cheap paper at any price.
If these are warrants being exercised, thats at least positive in that our cash build is increasing.
The next significant news is the arrival and deployment of out first 2 large trucks.
Can anyone confirm that we are on sched with their arrival and deployment ?
As for good juniors,
I keep buying more DYN.
Its scoped cash costs for its high
grade tungsten ( about $20 per MTU ) relative to the current price of tungsten ( $250 per MTU ) should turn it into a virtual cash cow, in addition to its 15,000 oz of high grade ( 16 gms/ton ) gold production not too far from CMM's
SJ gold mine in Peru.
LBE is a good buy if you like nickel.
stockhouse.ca
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==============================================================from GOZ SH board
==============================================================Im trying to figure out the numbers on GOZ to compare to other properties
comments, suggestions, what am I missing, am I on the right track??
I want to re-allocate my mining holdings before the next leg up and I think the
near term producers may move sooner and faster than pure speculative plays
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ROK
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61 mill shares fully diluted
based on stockpiled low grade material
4 mill tonnes
.59 g/t
90% recovery
$600 gold
$45.6 mill gross rock value
$.75 gross rock value per share
$8.00 cost per tonne ($425 cost per oz, no mining cost just millling)
$13.27 mill net project value
$.22 net value per share
based on measured+indicated+inferred reserves
10 mill tonnes
2.53 g/t
90% recovery
$600 gold
$490 mill gross rock value
$8.00 gross rock value per share
$25.00 cost per tonne ($300 cost per oz)
$239 mill net project value
$3.93 net value per share
8 yr mine life (1.3 mill tonnes per year)
- low grade stockpile will provide cash flow for exploration
- exploration samples will also be run thru mill to provide additional cash to
support exploration
- 5% of gross rock value per share is .40, is 5% of rock value a reasonable
valuation?? or should it be higher when production is so close
- 3.93 net value per share would be about .50 per year cash flow, what would
you pay today for .50 a yr for the next 8 yrs?
- today it traded at .68 which would be 1.4 times cash flow (if they where
mining), what would a reasonable ratio be?
- big upside is if they double the resource size |
