Feltburner, nice to see someone post about ALYD in context with other Y2K companies. I also like your attention to detail, such as basing your assumptions on 16.3, not 20 million shares (a 22.69% error!).
Also, you were the first person to correctly point out that ALYD's burn rate is not linear-- i.e. the old axiom of "it takes the most effort to get the ball rolling, not keeping it that way" applies here. Just like any factory, once you build an assembly line, you can always increase productivity by increasing efficiency and/or adding shifts, as opposed to simply starting from scratch. Even better, once ALYD and Compuware get the fix-it/test-it routine down to a science, they'll be cranking out remediated code faster and more efficiently than anybody.
For those wishing to play the home version of "What Should ALYD be Trading at in the Future" game, please be aware that I was quoted out of context with regard to programmer salaries. My original quote was: Worst case scenario, if we have a team size of five, earning the same $5000 per month each as the CEO, then each team costs ALYD $25K per month. I thought the words "worst case" and "as much as the CEO" were self-evident that I was purposefully exaggerating to make a point. Since ALYD uses bright kids out of college (remember, although the employees have programming knowledge, they are primarily hired to use a tool and not to program!), they probably make somewhere around 30K [Of course, with stock options, they hopefully will make a killing (gg)] FYI, that's a 100% margin of error for anyone using the $60K, not $30K, figure.
I also will address the Briefing.com article and several other things hopefully later tonight or tomorrow... but I have tons of work to catch up on and I have to get that done first before I take another break!
- Jeff
P.S. ALYD and CPWR have joint ads in Infoweek and Computerworld magazines, in anticipation of the official alliance rollout at the SPG Conference next week. |
