Not-so-crazy Kim tells the world to pay up one more time.
Thursday, July 6, 2006 12:01 a.m. EDT
Most of the civilized world spent yesterday denouncing Kim Jong Il's July 4 fireworks display of launching several missiles into the Sea of Japan. The denunciations are all very nice, but the question is what lesson the world's leaders, especially those in China and South Korea, are going to learn from this latest North Korean provocation.
White House National Security Adviser Steve Hadley declared that "it's hard to get a sense on what" the North Koreans "think is to be achieved by this." But we suspect Mr. Hadley knows well enough, because this is the way Kim Jong Il always behaves when he wants to coax the U.S. and other countries into making further concessions.
Kim is at it again because his previous provocations have typically been rewarded. The most famous example is the 1994 Agreed Framework in which the Clinton Administration responded to Kim's nuclear threats by offering aid and the promise of nuclear energy plants. That deal collapsed in 2002 when Kim repudiated it, announced a secret nuclear program and kicked out U.N. inspectors.
Or consider what happened the last time Kim launched a missile, sending the Taepodong-1 over Japan in 1998. The Clinton Administration went back to the negotiating table and came close to concluding a missile version of the 1994 nuclear agreement. As part of that deal--negotiated by then-State Department Counsellor Wendy Sherman--the U.S. would launch North Korean satellites in return for the North's pledge to stop developing long-range missiles.
Given Pyongyang's abysmal record at keeping its promises, the more likely outcome would have been the theft of U.S. technology and the strengthening of the North's missile program. As late as mid-December 2000 White House sources were even suggesting that President Clinton might visit Pyongyang to conclude the deal. Negotiations stopped only when the Clinton Administration's time expired.
This time Kim has tried to raise the stakes by launching a Taepodong-2, which has the range to reach the Western U.S. The fact that the missile exploded less than a minute after launch is reassuring, especially if you live in Seattle. But Kim still hopes this launch will attract even greater accommodation, and some in the U.S. and South Korea may be ready to play along.
The last thing the U.S. should do is reward North Korea's missile provocation with direct talks. Yet before yesterday's missile tests, that is exactly what Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Richard Lugar advised. Former Clinton officials Ashton Carter and William Perry have accused President Bush of ignoring diplomatic options with Pyongyang, even as they also propose a pre-emptive military strike. But what are the six-party talks with the North if not multilateral diplomacy? The real story may be, as Nicholas Eberstadt argues in The Wall Street Journal today, that Kim Jong Il has concluded from recent U.S. actions toward Iran and North Korea that Mr. Bush is now as diplomatically pliable as Mr. Clinton.
Japan had the most forceful response yesterday, banning port calls by North Korean ships, charter flights and officials. A lone North Korean ferry currently floating off the northern Japanese port of Niigata won't be allowed to dock. Tokyo is also mulling more severe economic sanctions.
Pyongyang's launch is especially embarrassing to China and South Korea, both of which warned against a launch and both of which have propped up Kim's regime. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill flew to Asia yesterday to consult with both countries, and his challenge is to get them to join Japan and the U.S. in putting more economic and political pressure on the North.
China doesn't want refugees pouring across its northern border and also doesn't want to be seen to be abandoning a client regime. However, the missile test is an opportunity for the U.S. to show Beijing that its support for Kim is creating other problems for Chinese interests, notably a more militarily assertive Japan.
In South Korea, one question is whether a change in policy toward the North must wait until a change of government in Seoul. President Roh Moo Hyun has staked much of his domestic political credibility on his "peace and prosperity policy." His party took a whipping in recent local elections and he's down in the polls, but the next presidential election isn't until December 2007.
North Korea's missile tests also point up the need for improved missile defenses, both regionally and in the U.S. South Korea announced last week the purchase of upgraded Patriot missiles from Germany. Japan is working closely with Washington to improve its fledgling missile defenses, including an agreement last week to allow the Pentagon to deploy Patriots at a U.S. base in Okinawa.
But nothing the U.S. and Japan might do is likely to accomplish much if China and South Korea refuse to pressure the North to abandon its nuclear program. This is what happens when a non-transparent, authoritarian regime is appeased long enough for it to acquire nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them. The mullahs in Tehran have already absorbed that lesson. Iran, and other states that are considering going nuclear, will be closely watching how the world responds to Kim Jong Il's latest provocation.
opinionjournal.com |
