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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: GST who wrote (65378)	7/6/2006 2:28:20 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) of 110194

Incomes have been soaring in China. Your view that "wages" will go down is not consistent with the transitions going in in the global economy. There is a glut of unskilled labor and a shortage of people with skills. If Americans are in the skilled camp they will do ok. Unskilled Americans will live like unskilled people in other countries. The issue is no longer where you live, it is what you have to offer in skills and experience. There is no shortage of people with skills. Even if there was it would be irrelevant. If everyone had a PHD then PHDs would be hauling trash. Point blank there is no shortage of PHDs anyway. But since you will disagree I will agree with you. So now what? What % of jobs require that PHD (or whatever you chose to measure skills by)? What % of jobs requite "high skill levels". Exactly how many of these jobs are you talking about in percentages. .5%, 1%, 3% 6%? OK so say it is 20% (preposterously high) but assume it is. 80% of the jobs do not require much more than basic education or apprentice time learning a trade. So 80% of the people will be crucified and 20% will be winners. As for wages rising in China - BFD Seriously wages go up 35% and it sounds like a big deal (and maybe it is to them but to go from 60 cents and hour to 80 cents an hour or whatever just shows you how much moire room there is for wages in the US to drop. Looking at medical or dental costs for excellent treatment, costs in India are 80% lower. Heart surgery save $80,000 and perhaps get better treatment with more nurses watching you as well. Plenty of room for costs to drop. And they will. And it will be a good thing. Except for those that overpaid for their US education and will not have the means to pay it back. Mish

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