I'm not sure where Cramer got that expectation. I don't think Pfizer has said anything more specific than "midsummer." Sounds like he heard a false rumor, or worse, is being self-serving. If it creates weakness beyond today's response, I'll be buying that second slug I was talking about. Anyway, I believe the initial revenue will just be contract revenue for putting the systems together. I didn't think anyone was seriously expecting any Exubera revenue for this quarter; I certainly wasn't. IMS figures will probably be hard to read at first. Trends not likely to show until a ways into August, IMO, but it depends on when it actually does ship. I'll be surprised if news of the first shipment isn't loudly trumpeted. Really, the big deal is with insurers. ExpressScripts has said they won't cover it (in as many words), while one of the others (can't remember which) said they might. If they or some major US regulatory agency acts like NICE, though, we'll have a problem. It would spark a groundswell of protest, but whether that would sway 'em, I don't know. I'd say odds of that are low, though, and thank goodness NICE doesn't speak for anyone but Britain.
Cheers, Tuck |
