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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: russwinter who wrote (65201)7/7/2006 12:39:38 PM
From: booyaka  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
Update on euroyen futures market:
the Tankan survey makes it hard for the Bank of Japan any longer to put off the decision to start “normalising” rates—particularly since the stockmarket has now recovered its poise after worrying falls in May and early June. On the survey's publication, the market for euroyen futures instantly priced in the probability of a quarter-point rise at the end of the BoJ's policy-board meeting on July 13th and 14th, along with a further rise of the same magnitude later in the year. Yet with today's rate of core inflation, even a cumulative half-point rise in interest rates would not represent “normalisation”, for real interest rates would remain below zero—after inflation, you would still be paid to borrow. The prices of euroyen futures indicate a further half-point rise in interest rates next year.
Message 22603270

Looks like the consensus now strongly favors a BOJ rate hike next week.
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