RtS, I saw an article earlier today(I tried to go back and find it, but couldn't), where the statement was made that it will take about 5 years to get the oil situation back in "balance" where speculators are unable to "jack the price" because of feared shortages. I certainly don't know if that is true or not, but it could be quite awhile before oil prices come down.
Having said that, I don't think "oil" is the reason for the market doldrums and selloff. While oil is an irritant, IMO the main reason is the Fed raising interest rates until we have a recession, or near recession - either way, the economy will slow considerably, and earnings will come down. The Fed is supposed to control inflation, and keep the economy humming along, however, of the 2 goals, they will always err on the side of controlling inflation, which usually means a recession is the result of raising the interest rates too far.
At the rate interest rates are being raised, we are probably doomed to have a much slower economy next year. IMO, the institutions are unloading stock now so they can buy it back much cheaper later. Actually they have done a pretty good job of unloading already in many sectors, semis and semi-equips included.
Maybe we can get a "bounce" in the semi sector when earnings announcements are made because they are going to be very good. Always of course, the CEO's outlook for the coming quarter(s) are very important, but they have to be quite careful in what they say. Because of the looming economy slowdown, I am not too hopeful of a bounce. As a matter of fact, we could have more selling after the good earnings news is announced in this environment.
We won't have long to wait - first earnings should be forthcoming next week for some of the semi-equips.
Don |
