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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 314.52

-0.6%

Dec 11 4:00 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (31371)	7/11/2006 12:17:01 AM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) of 95574

Gottfried, your charts are great. Truly they are but these stocks rise in anticipation of rapid earnings growth not on actual growth. I believe the average period of time that technology stocks rise after a cyclical bottom is around 14 to 15 months. Rules of course are often broken. I also believe that if you want to make out best on these stocks then you must buy when they are not just out of favor but when the entire stock market is out of favor. Right now we are seeing rotation into defensive stocks in anticipation of an economic slowdown. That to me is another definitive sign that we have seen a cyclical market top. How soon will we see the bottom? Have we already seen it? If so then why are the S&P 500 and DJIA still above their 200 sma's. Is the entire market out of favor or just rotating? Can the market avoid a more severe sell off. I would not bet on that. JMHO, RtS

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