Trouble South of the border: Mexico's oil production
Dave, The Oil Drum
In April of this year, Mexico's president Vincente Fox announced a major new discovery in the Gulf of Mexico by the state-owned oil company Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX). This new field, announced a scant few months before Mexico's national presidential elections, was said to contain a potential URR of 10 Gb (billion barrels) of oil. I had wanted to do a story on PEMEX and Mexican oil production. What was the story? I knew from the discoveries trend that finding a field of this size is now rare, a statistical outlier. So, I waited. On July 5th, I got my answer and my patience was rewarded. The Energy Bulletin, quoting from the Oil & Gas Journal (OGJ) announced Fox-hailed deepwater well a modest gas find
I had followed the story closely that the 2nd biggest oil field in the world and the biggest producer of heavy sour crude, Cantarell, is now in decline, perhaps radical decline. However, I am planning a follow-on story that will explore what is happening there and at Ghawar. Here, we'll concentrate on other aspects of the steadily deteriorating situation in Mexican oil production. As usual, let's get the big picture from the EIA country analysis brief.
(10 July 2006)
The Oil Drum site appeared to be down when I tried to access this article. I read it as part of Tom Whipple's daily Peak Oil news headlines. -AF
UPDATE: The Oil Drum is up and running. The link to the article is www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/7/10/145048/052 . -BA
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Opec: 'We do not subscribe to the peak-oil theory'
(Maybe they should subscribe to The Oil Drum)
Neil Chatterjee, Mail & Guardian
Oil cartel Opec scolded consuming nations on Tuesday for forcing it to spend billions on spare crude production capacity while sending confusing policy signals on future demand.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has an estimated 100 exploration and production projects with investment in the region of $100-billion to meet rising demand, but justifying spare capacity to calm oil market nerves was difficult, said acting secretary general Mohammed Barkindo...
Opec forecasts demand for oil to grow at 1,5-million barrels per day (bpd) until 2010, led by developing countries and the transportation sector, but Barkindo said supply growth would meet or exceed new demand.
"This will bring sufficient upstream capacity," he said. "We in Opec do not subscribe to the peak-oil theory."
(11 July 2006)
No one can seriously deny that oil is essentially a non-renewable resource and therefore will at some stage peak in production - the question is when. -AF
UPDATE:
Note that we have had prominent back-to-back denials of Peak Oil, yesterday in the WSJ, and today by OPEC. IMO, continued evidence of the "Iron Triangle" at work. If memory serves, Ayn Rand, in "Atlas Shrugged," said that one could discern the truth from assuming the opposite of what most of the media and most government officials were saying. This kind of thing always reminds me of someone who, when you meet them, starts by assuring you of how honest they are (I always check to make sure I still have my wallet whenever I hear something like this.) - WesTexas
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