Update by Leanan on 07/12/06 at 10:48 AM EDT]
The Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending July 7, 2006 has been released. There was a big draw on crude inventories. Price of oil is heading skyward.
eia.doe.gov
westexas on Wednesday July 12, 2006 at 10:47 AM EST
Re: My "Export Land" Model--Ladies & Gentlemen, this ain't rocket science
The latest EIA data show a big drop in crude oil inventories, because of big drop in crude oil imports.
As I predicted, total US petroleum imports, on a four week running average, have started falling again--and oil prices have started rising again.
IMO, the pattern that we will see for years and probably decades to come is the following: (1) a drop in oil exports; (2) followed by an increase in oil prices, as remaining exports go to the highest bidder, followed by (3) a period of relative stability, and then the cycle starts all over again.
We had one complete cycle this spring, and IMO we at the start of another cycle right now. What amazed me this past spring was the number of people that kept trying to explain how falling petroleum imports and rising oil prices meant that we had plenty of oil.
Look at the consumption numbers--up in the US and China and way up in many oil exporting countries--while world crude + condensate production, as predicted by the HL method, is down 1% since December. Someone has to be cutting back.
As I said, this ain't rocket science. What baffles me is that anyone is contesting the hard cold facts. How in the world can you predict rising oil production when the four largest producing oil fields are all past their peak production? I suspect that Ghawar and Cantarell are both on the verge of catastrophic declines.
theoildrum.com |
