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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 256.12+0.5%Oct 31 9:30 AM EST
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From: Petz7/12/2006 8:34:10 PM
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AMD CPG Revenue Seasonality

Q: So is -9% a SEASONALLY BAD Q2?
A: No, not even close.

Taking CPG revenues from Q2 1998 through the assumed 1175M in Q2 2006, the table below gives the PERCENTAGE REVENUE GROWTH, and its standard deviation, for each of the four quarters Q1 to Q4, relative to the immediately prior quarter.
AMD CPG SALES SEASONALITY PERCENTAGE Q/Q GROWTH
                      GEOMETRIC
QUARTER NEG POS AVERAGE MEAN    MEDIAN  STD DEV
  Q1     4   4    2%     1%        1%     14%
  Q2     6   2  -12%    -4%      -12%     15%
  Q3     3   5   12%     8%       14%     33%
  Q4     1   7   34%    31%       39%     27%

CPG revenue growth solved via linear regression of the logs over the period is 13% a year.

So, over the 8 samples, -9% for CPG revenue growth is better than the average percentage growth and better than the median growth, but slightly worse than the geometric mean growth. Note that for Q3, CPG sales grow on average by 12%, but there is a large variance to the Q3 growth amounts.

Petz
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