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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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From: Think4Yourself7/14/2006 8:26:47 AM
Read Replies (3) of 306849
 
Anyone care to share their favorite shorts/puts, and companies they wouldn't short here?

My main theme is to find companies with high Florida exposure and/or poor management. By going with Florida you get the bubble working for you AND the hurricane/insurance problems (that are also killing the state's finances).

I am getting out of DHI here. They are hurting but company seems very well run and last night's report seemed refreshingly honest. Same with PHM. Not looking to reenter on short side and will probably buy in a few years when cycle bottoms out.

Increasing positions in LEN and RYL. High exposure in Florida. Shoddy construction on both company's homes has led to PR problems, lawsuits, and "regulator" interest for both. LEN also seems to have problems with their high level management and might not survive this downturn

Looking for opportunity to increase positions in KBH. Significant presence in Florida and long ways to potentially fall. Lack of cash could cause major survival concerns on Wall Street, and yesterday's dividend declaration in the face of this raises questions about senior management competence.

Holding with large positions in WCI and JOE. Massive Florida exposure. WCI looks particularly troubled and might not survive this downturn. JOE has lots of Panhandle land but has held for many years so should not have the land writedowns everyone else will be reporting soon.

Have other companies. Nothing in press good or bad so will be examining their earnings reports closely for clues to management competence.

FWIW, the data of recent days has changed my mind about the Fed tightening. I now think they are done raising rates, or will at least pause.
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