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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc.

AAPL 259.48

+0.5%

Jan 30 9:30 AM EST

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To: Cogito who wrote (54474)	7/14/2006 9:02:43 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (3) of 213183

In this environment, Apple would have to report 1.00 per share and predict a blowout for the next quarter in order to get any kind of bump. I agree with you. But just to run some way out numbers. This is from memory so don't quote me. Last qtr MAC asp around $1500 iirc. They sold 1.1 million= 1.65 billion. Then 8.5 million ipods at $190 or so= 1.61 billion. Roughly equal Mac and ipod sales. I think apple will triple the mac business and more, and also the mac ASP will rise. Additionally the 800 million extra revenue from software etc will increase if mac sales triple. Lets take a worse case scenario and say ipod sales are cut in half from here so 800 million in ipod revenue instead of 1.6 billion. 3 million mac sales per quarter is 4.5 billion, equal to apples total revenue now. If they sell that many macs, the 800mm "other" revenue becomes 1.6 billion since more macs = more addons. Then the ipod revenue declines to say 500 million. Thats a 6.5 billion quarter I think is coming for apple sometime next year. I believe the Citi analyst and Munster are thinking like me. The Goldman analyst Laura Canigliaro is ignoring the PC business as are some others. Its a tough call. I do think the IT depts are evaluating the pro models for the unix access which no other system can provide. There are even a few unix laptops out there which are very expensive to run things like SunOS but they are so unreliable nobody buys them. But the fact they exist shows there is demand. That is business demand which (of course) the analysts miss. I am used to analysts "missing" everything in this decade. Sigh.

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