But just to run some way out numbers. This is from memory so don't quote me. Last qtr MAC asp around $1500 iirc. They sold 1.1 million= 1.65 billion. Then 8.5 million ipods at $190 or so= 1.61 billion. Roughly equal Mac and ipod sales.
I agree with most of what you stated in the rest of your message but had a couple of thoughts and questions...
Then 8.5 million ipods at $190 or so= 1.61 billion.
The 8.5 mil ipods were at $201 for 1.71 bil.
I think apple will triple the mac business and more, and also the mac ASP will rise.
Triple of mac sales in '07 is quite aggressive (I'm thinking up 50-100% but won't be at all upset if you're correct on this) However, why do you expect the ASP to rise? I would expect it to decline (think $1,200 to $1,300 for portables) as they scale up sales in the same way the ASP for the iPod dropped at it scaled: most of the volume is at the lower end.
Lets take a worse case scenario and say ipod sales are cut in half from here so 800 million in ipod revenue instead of 1.6 billion.
That's one heckuva worst case on the ipod and (hopefully) a safe lower limit. (I think iPod is far from done) Am I correct in assuming you disregarded the gross revenue hit the iTMS would take from such a slide due to lack of a meaningful profit?
Additionally the 800 million extra revenue from software etc will increase if mac sales triple.
Not sure where you got the $800M: they had $264M in other hardware (displays, networking, isights, mice, etc.) and $324 in misc s/w and service (pro apps, ilife, iwork, os x upgrades, .mac, applecare) and don't know that I'd agree these would scale linearly. More likely, they would scale as some fraction (just guessing: .3 to .5?) of mac sales. Again, with most of the sales growth coming from the lower end (i.e. macbook) don't expect that said buyers will purchase upgrades and add-ons at the same rate as the historic customer base.
I do think the IT depts are evaluating the pro models for the unix access which no other system can provide.
I would completely discount this. While it would be nice and likely to happen to some degree (i.e. in smaller shops and islands within corporations), not likely to happen in a material way in the near term. Eventually this could be a significant factor but not likely in the next 2-3 years. |
