Hi koan, not to minimize the geopolitical situation, but in my view events that are being portrayed in the markets are worst case scenarios which I believe will never happen.
Let me elaborate my view. Remember a few years back when Israel attacked and bombed the head quarters of Yaser Arafat for weeks. What happened then, a whole Middle East war? No, after they dismantled the threat to them, Israel stopped everything and the whole incident died down.
Now what do we have today, a Hezbollah group which was getting too powerful for the good of Israel and had to be dealt with, with a preemptive strike of sorts. The two soldiers were just an excuse to execute a plan. They are going to weaken Hezbollah and destroy them as much as they can and then back off. This may take a week or two.
Now all this talk about Syria and Iran getting involved in a war with Israel is Poppycock. All these countries put together are no match for Israel's Army and they all know it. Why do you think the Arabs wear bombs and explode themselves inside Israel, because they have no other way of inflicting harm to them.
Syria has a new young king, and he is not foolish enough to drag himself into a war where he will end up destroying his country. As for Iran, the country is thousands of miles away from the situation. How could Iran possibly go to war with Israel, plain silly.
Furthermore, all the talk about Iran being behind Hezbollah is to demonize the country as much as possible and prepare the world opinion for an eventual preemptive strike on their nuclear facilities sometime down the road.
In my view then the reaction of the general market and its severe oversold condition, coupled with an eventual halt by the fed to raise interest rates, is presenting us with a good buying opportunity.
Just my view,
STF |
