The Residential Real Estate Crash Index Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (57806)	7/15/2006 11:55:17 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (3) of 306849

The last down-turn started around 1984, with the decline in petroleum prices, in Texas and Colorado. The weakness appeared in California Boston and New York around November 1989, and was recognized as a serious decline in the Spring of 1990. When I say things are collapsing much faster among home builders, than they did during the last down-turn, what I'm referring to is the reaction of the home builders. One land developer who sells to major home builders referred to what is currently going on as "the panic of the publicly held builders." Contrast this to 1990, when most home builders saw the drop-off in demand as a temporary condition. Many home builders initially "took advantage" of the weakness to purchase additional land. By 1993 they were in serious trouble and many filed for bankruptcy. Perhaps the current panic to dump land inventory and shed employees reflects a wisdom these surviving companies learned from their experiences during the last down-turn. .

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