My In-depth Interview with Tad Patzek
This entry was posted on 7/10/2006 3:16 PM and is filed under My Interviews.
Tad Patzek is a geoengieering professor at the University of California at Berkeley. He, alongside David Pimentel are known as the largest critics of Ethanol. In a co-written paper published last year in Natural Resources Research, they produced studies saying ethanol from corn takes more energy to produce than it delivers.
More about Tad Patzek
The Interview:
Konrad Imielinski: Knowing your skepticism on ethanol, which alternative fuel then has the biggest chance to replace oil?
Tad Patzek: Other than coal, there is no alternative fuel to replace oil, unless we do cut our automotive fuel consumption by a factor of 5-10%. If we do so, then methanol or wood alcohol is the initial molecule most appropriate to synthesize other liquid fuels, gasoline, jet fuel and diesel fuel.
KI: Major oil companies can easily enter the ethanol industry as it is technically simple to produce. Why haven’t they yet? What affect will I have on smaller companies such as Pacific Ethanol (PEIX) of Xethanol (XNL)? Will those smaller companies be squashed or acquired?
TP: Oil companies will make money on ethanol no matter what, but the scale of these enterprises are too small for them to bother seriously. Some are scoring public relations points by pretending that they are hot on ethanol. But take away the $1 dollar per gallon subsidies (see my short document above) and few will remain interested. Also, not everyone can get stock deals as good as Mr. Gates. If he gets out of this game quickly enough, he will make a bundle.
KI: Based on your research alongside Mr. Pimentel, if true, that ethanol from corn takes more energy to produce than it delivers, why are major figures such as Vinod Khosla, Richard Branson, Robert Redford and President Bush still strong advocates for ethanol?
TP: Mr. Vinod Koshla and company are rather ignorant men, who also happen to be famous for other reasons. For some reason they seem to have an urge to talk about things they know so little about. Would you like Mr. Vinod Khosla to perform a brain surgery on you because you like him so much, or would you rather have a qualified person do it, while Mr. Koshla runs down his Sun Microsystems all the way to the ground?
KI: Skeptics of your research say your results were based on the technology used at the time, including old plants. Do you think your results will remain the same as Ethanol has expanded significantly into a hot business and technology has become more efficient?
TP: These skeptics are paid a lot to remain so. Please read my online supporting materials to the Science letter. Once you have done so, please try to answer this question yourself.
petroleum.berkeley.edu
KI: Why can’t America follow the path which Brazil has taken in terms of alternative fuels?
TP: America uses 140 billion gallons of gasoline per year and Brazil uses 6.5 billion gallons. The population of Brazil is 185 million people and the US population is 300 million people. If you do the ratios, you will conclude that as soon as you and I , and Mr. Khosla drive our cars once in every two weeks, we will be able to emulate the Brazilian model. Oh, and at the time the ethanol program was started there, Brazil was owned by five super rich families, the Rancheros. These families decided that it would be good for Brazil to become a highly subsidized captive market for their main product sugarcane. The American equivalent of the Rancheros is ADM.
KI: What is your view on cellulosic ethanol?
TP: When we have a working industrial process, please get back to me. See the last section at the link above.
KI: What is your prediction on the future of “ethanol stocks” as they have been losing steam since their “bubble” like run?
TP: The ethanol stocks will collapse, unless the ethanol lobby, can keep the massive subsidies flowing. Even worse, the existing ethanol plants will be useless for other much more efficient processes, such as Fischer-Tropsch.
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