Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host

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From: stockalot	7/16/2006 12:03:19 PM
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Brinker has a history of holding on to his position and hoping the market bails him out. In 98 which was an "off presidential year", Brinker made a call of a "gift horse buying opportunity" while being fully invested for many years (that makes the whole exercise rather silly anyway) claiming that Dow 8650 was a "benchmark low buying opportunity". When the market reached slightly below that level, many of his champions like Lars and Justa on their moderated SI board crowed that Brinker had hit it right on the head. Brinker who was outted posting as Don Lane on SI now changed to mistertopes chimed in with an August post bragging on himself and posing the proposition that Brinker (himself) had "another direct hit on his hands" and followed it with all kinds of silly smilies. The market went straight down to under 7500. Brinker stopped posting and really stopped mentioning the market as it continued to fall. When it bounced off the bottom in mid Oct 98 and was up several hundred points that Saturday program Brinker "took a second bite of the apple" with another "gift horse" claim of "You can't afford to be out of the market one day". He returned to posting on SI and bragged on himself in a post claiming his favorite post from that show was "I am Bob Brinker, I am bullish, the rest is history". The market did indeed bail him out. His previous "gift horse" of 8650 was left out of his bragging. "It didn't happen" is the way Brinker handled it. In October 2000 Brinker sent out that disasterous advice to take up to 1/2 of the cash reserves raised when he removed 60% from the market. The subsribers recieved the bulletin when the QQQs were trading in the high 70s or 80s. The next month Brinker chose not to put this advice in the model portfolios but encouraged subscribers that his QQQ advice was appropriate and continued to make excused for a delay in the rally for months. Indeed early in 2001 Brinker took a "second bite of the apple" declaring in his newsletter that "We project up to 50% or more gains in the QQQ shares from their benchmark low of 52 on Jan 3, 2001." He continued hyping this call and claiming prosperity was just around the corner seemingly hoping the market would bail him out. Alas that never came and he simply has hidden the call for a huge % of a portfolio, never issuing a sell, and we are nearly 6 years down the road. So do any of you believe that should the market continue downward that Brinker will change his call and go bearish or just hope the market will bail him out? In 98 the market fell a little over 20% intra day and Brinker claimed the reason his "model" didn't predict it was that the closing low was only 19.9% down. :) My feeling is that Brinker locks into a position and becomes paralyzed while only claiming that his "model" tells him what to do. Even though we went through the worst bear market since the depression, Brinker never went to cash and indeed rode it out with up to 70% of a portfolio invested, skewed toward technology. Obviously a finely tuned model that he claims to have would have been screaming "get out" . Brinker stupid or is the model more of a gimmick to sell newsletters? With valuations at the low end of recent times, my guess, perhaps more of a hope is that the market will go up. However NOBODY knows and no model can predict with investible accuracy when or where the market will go. I'd be interested in hearing from those who believe that if the market goes down 20% from this spring's highs that Brinker will have issued a sell signal for all stock market holdings.

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