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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: Moominoid who wrote (53449)7/17/2006 12:23:29 PM
From: YanivBA  Read Replies (3) of 116555
 
Well I guess as an Israeli I should know something about this conflict so I will tell you what I think.

1) There is no way Israel goes back into Lebanon. We left so much dead kids over there that the Israeli public will not accept walking that path again. I speculate there will be ceasefire by the end of the week. Relative strength in the Israeli stock market yesterday and today reflects I am not alone in the opinion.

2) Israel's conflict in Lebanon has no realistic relation to oil prices. There is no oil in this area. The media here always push as if Hizballa is actually the long hand of Iran. I don't buy it. It smell's to me like Orwell's 1984. But if it is true, in some degree, than we can ask what is Iran's interests in instigating conflict? I think the answer to that is the price of oil. The ruling party in Iran can maintain its control over the calls to reform only by providing ever increasing, oil financed, subsidies. That I believe crates an incentive to provoke. If I for example would have wished to build a nuke the last thing I would do is to go to the media and call for the destruction of Israel. That's like shooting yourself in the leg.

3) My girlfriend is in a real panic over the missiles. I got the "all you care about is the stock market" treatment for three days in a row. There is blood on the streets. If I was allowed by my rules to trade the local market I guess another panic sell off and this would be a good time to buy it (with an appropriate hedge in small caps). But my rules are there for are reason. I was always bearish and it kept rising and rising.

YanivBA.
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