roni: VLO screaming buy? In the mid-50s, but at 60, it deserves a look.
In this climate, I'm not sure that even a real oil/gas collapse would take out refiners as fast or as far, and of course with the real bottleneck in energy being insufficient refinery capacity on rising demand, it would seem to me that refiners are the safest plays in oil... only a complete collapse in gasoline demand would really hurt refiners, IMO...
I think they are being unfairly pounded today on news just because they are in the oil sector, but if investors stop to think a minute, they might realize that today's oil price news is probably temporary and while I can see whacking drillers and other OSX in the short run if oil declines $5, the refiners are still maxed out right now and probably will remain that way throughout this year.
I'd be looking to add to my VLO at 60 or less and looking to add to my TSO in mid 60s.
But I would build positions slowly to take advantage of best prices, regardless.
Same as bottom feeding strategy on AAPL... although I am not as certain as Ms. roni about buying today, but then I already have that little leftover core from 7/97 (@$3.51/share) so I know I won't miss out completely if I've missed bottom and it keeps moving up through earnings (which is atypical for AAPL, but maybe things are sufficiently different this week and maybe AAPL was already taking its usual earnings pounding ahead of earnings if enough people were expecting the usual earnings drop -- maybe it's alreay factored into the price here.
Jim |
