A post by Eolith on the FOOL
No turning back now. Israel is in this and there's no way out but to go forward through it. The C-802 missles launched into Israel yesterday represent a decisive turn of events, a new mandate to eradicate Hezbollah from Lebanon once and for all. This imperative is a very tall order, though, and cannot occur without significant commitment of Israeli ground forces going house to house in face-to-face combat that will likely be very bloody and could make Falluja look more like a picnic in comparison.
Remember, Israel's dispute and fight in Lebanon is against Hezbollah, Syria and Iran, a triad of evil that in each case presents very unique and distinct challenges. The majority of the Lebanese people - about 75 percent - don't support Hezbollah (unlike in the case of the Palestinians with respect to Hamas where support runs above 75 percent presently). The numbers of the Hezbollah, however, are much higher than with the insurgency in Iraq at its peak. The challenges will be much greater and the fallout will necessarily be much bloodier. The weaponry used by Hezbollah comes from both Iran and Syria. They are equipped with sophisticated mobile missile launchers that can reach deep inside Israel. They might also have chemical warheads. This campaign could easily take years rather than months to complete.
In the meantime, an Israeli ground offensive in Beirut could at any time become bogged down also. That would increase the liklihood that Israel would launch air strikes against Syria. The ultimatum delivered a couple days ago by Israel to the Syrian government was meant to set the stage for such an attack at Israel's pleasure while the fighting on the Lebanon gets underway and intensifies. The chances of Syria remaining out of the war with Israel are slim and none with slim packing his suitcase right now in hopes of catching one of the evacuation helicopters landed in Beirut scheduled for takeoff to Cyprus. Syria's entry into the war against Israel is all but inevitable now.
And why should the Iranian mullahs and their prince of darkness observe and conduct operations against Israel in comfort and safety? Why should Iran be spared some quid pro quo by Israeli bombers since the Iranians are demonstrably arming and supporting Hezbollah. Israeli intelligence has indicated that soldiers with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard are on the ground in Lebanon directly participating in the missle attacks on Israeli citizens. How long can Israel allow Iranians to play such a decisive role in the military attack on Israel with impunity and without paying any price for what they have done, what they are doing, and what they are likely to do?
Iran represents the greatest complexity because of the distance involved and because of the proximity to Iraq and U.S. armed forces stationed there. Would the Shiite-dominated government in Iraq issue orders to the U.S. forbidding the use of Iraqi soil for any missions conducted against Iran or in support of Israel? Would the United States be prepared to help Israel and/or fight against Iran with or without Iraqi support or agreement? Will Israel strike at Iran? How will Iran retaliate against Israel or the United States?
Then there's is the liklihood of a humanitarian crisis among the Lebanese people and both charges of war crimes made against Israeli soldiers and mistakes made in the armed engagement amid the fog of war in the desperate circumstances where life is threatened and taken in a moment's notice. Add to all that the anti-Jewish disposition of the French, Russians, and Kofi at the United Nations not to mention the vicious vitriolic hatred of Jews in the European media. The "world community of nations" could well be seen and taken to be viewed as turning against Israel, notwithstanding the steadfast support of the United States.
The mobilization and introduction of Israeli ground forces into Lebanon now being set in motion also means Israel must go to war with Syria if and when Syrian troops cross over into Lebanon. That would represent all out war between Israel and Syria over the future of Lebanon and the very existance of Hezbollah. It will probably mean military attacks inside Israel of an unprecedented intensity and duration not to mention what will happen to Damascus. The escalation in strictly violent, destructive and lethal terms in Israeli and in Syrian cities would raise the stakes for the region and for the world. Triple digit oil is just one thing.
Then there is the unknown. Who can say what else might occur now that this Pandora's Box has been opened? What might happen that cannot be anticipated? What might happen in Egypt? Jordan? Saudi Arabia?
At this point, the risks are very high in terms of Israel's national security interest. The cost in blood will be tragic. But the reward in regard to Israel's place among its neighbors should be even greater when Israel achieves the victory albeit it a tragic cost in human terms.
This is a new chapter in Israeli history. The nature of the times is profoundly perilous and the dynamic of the threat is highly complex. There will be no bloodless way through it.
As for myself, I stopped all the Monday quarterbacking of the Olmert government yesterday and decided that Israel must now be supported. There's no turning back from here.
I just pray that the God of Israel will watch after Israel; that God will protect the Israeli people; that He will keep the Israeli soldiers safe and strengthen them in their fight; and that He shall guide the Israeli leadership and military command in every step toward victory the way He guided David in his battles.
eolith |
